Game Theory #18: Trump World Order

About an hour ago, Donald Trump addressed the American people. This follows an address by Prime Minister Albanese of Australia to his people as well as Prime Minister Starmer to the British people. And in both speeches by Starmer and Albanese, they said to the people, "We know that fuel prices, gas prices are going up and we should expect more pain, but we will do as much as we can to ensure that your wallet is not too impacted." Donald Trump in his address to the American people basically said that this war will continue. America may start to bomb energy and oil infrastructure of Iran.

Okay, so let's listen to a few of his words. "Our economy is strong and improving by the day, and it will soon be roaring back like never before. It will top the levels that it was a month ago. I made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.

We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong." Okay, so he's basically saying that we're winning this war and that we will bomb them to the Stone Ages, which tells us he's actually not winning this war, okay? Now, I also want to look at another person who is Peter Hoekstra. New strategic map.

So, remember, this war in Iran, it's not ending. In fact, many people believe it's only starting to ramp up. So, there are rumors that Donald Trump has already authorized the use of ground And so, we could see an invasion of Iran as early as this weekend. But, certainly, definitely, this month, okay? But, while America is fighting this war in Iran, this is the second of war Peter Hoekstra, and he's announced that America will control all North America.

"From Greenland to the Gulf of America to the Panama Canal and its surrounding At the Department of War, we call this strategic map the greater North America. Because every sovereign nation and territory north of the equator, from Greenland to Ecuador and from Alaska to Guyana, is not part of the global south. It's the security perimeter in this great neighborhood that we all live in." So, basically, what he's saying is we will enforce the Monroe Doctrine in North America. So, it sounds very strange to people in that Donald Trump is fighting this war in Iran that's not really winnable.

At the same time, he is being aggressive in North America. He's seeking fights with Canada, with Denmark over Greenland, with Colombia, with Mexico, with Cuba. In fact, he's embargoing Cuba right now and people expect possibly an invasion of Cuba very soon. So, people just think that Donald Trump is all over the place and he's idiotic, okay? So, this is Iran and everyone says that a ground invasion of Iran would be stupid because it is much too large to invade. Right now, America has only about 50,000 troops in the Middle East and the geography, the terrain makes it very hard to control, okay?

So, you have these mountains, the Zagros Mountains, which allows for the Iranians to hide and conduct guerrilla warfare and use drone strikes and artillery strikes. And then you have the desert, which makes it very hard to cross, okay? So, even if the Americans were to attack from here, from Iraq, they would have to face the mountains. If they were to attack from Pakistan, from the east, they would have to face deserts, okay? And if they were to attack from the south, they would face all these mountains and also you're far away from Tehran, which is ultimately your Okay?

So, there's lots of conversations about what the Americans are trying to do. Right now, the consensus seems to be the Americans first want to control the Strait of Hormuz in order to alleviate the strain on the global economy, okay? But as you can see from this map, first of all, the strait, it's not very wide and it's very close to the Iranian coastline and the mountains, so it's easy to attack from there are these and then the Iranians can put mines all around the strait as well. So, what everyone tells us is that an invasion of Iran would just be idiotic.

But, at the same time, the Americans need to free up the Strait of Hormuz and allow for maritime navigation in order to stabilize the global economy. Okay? Already we're seeing lots of signs that America's preparing for a long, long war. So, there are already 50,000 troops in the Middle East, and a lot of them will be deployed against Iran. But, also there's a letter from Leonard Anderson to reserves telling them, "We must get ready to deploy, fight, and Okay? So, not only have they sent 50,000 troops to the Middle East, but they're preparing to call up the reserves as well.

Okay? So, this seems as though America's preparing for total war. PredictIt is a very interesting place to understand how global events will turn out, okay? And so, there are three indicators that in fact a war is coming, a ground invasion is coming. First of all, the Pentagon pizza index is exploding. What does this mean? It means that in the Pentagon, when they're preparing to launch a ground invasion, they need to work overtime. And so, they call for pizza. And so, pizza deliveries are going up. Gay bars are empty. Okay?

So, when people don't have much to do, they go on dates. The last is people are making bets, large bets that a ground invasion will happen, okay? So, these are people who have inside information. And so, they go on PredictIt and make a bet that this will happen, knowing it will happen. So, this guy bet $200,000 that a ground invasion will happen, and if it turns out a ground invasion does happen, he will win over a million dollars. Okay? So, these are three very good indicators that a ground invasion has been approved, and it will happen very, very soon.

Okay. Donald Trump himself has said many, many things, okay? So, he said that, "You know what? If we leave the Middle East, it's not our problem. We don't really care, okay?" And he also says that, "Hey, NATO, it's your responsibility to open the Strait of Hormuz because we told you so, and because you need the oil." And of course, NATO is angry at Donald Trump because previously, Donald Trump threatened to take over Greenland. Okay? So, everything Donald Trump says is a He doesn't plan ahead because before this war in Iran, where he needs the help of NATO, he was pissing off NATO by threatening over Greenland.

So, Donald Trump is all over the place. He's just a right?

So, clearly Donald Trump is the worst president in human history. And he's a complete buffoon. But, let's put our thinking caps on. Okay, let's use game theory and say what if for some strange reason Donald Trump wants to lose his war in Iran? What if he wants the American empire to What if Donald Trump wants to destroy the global Then he'd be a genius, right?

He's a because he's going to destroy the American empire, but if he actually wants to destroy the American empire, then the man is the greatest American president ever, Okay, so we're going to have a fun discussion today, and we're going to make the argument that in fact Donald Trump is a genius. That in fact all this is purposeful. That there's actually a plan behind all this, okay? That's the argument I want to make to you today. Okay. So, what is the plan? What is going on here? All right, so first thing to notice is that the world gets 20% Okay?

20% of its oil from the Middle East, okay? Primarily going to East Asia. So, India gets about 6% of its oil from the Middle East. Japan gets 6.75% of its oil from the Middle East. So, East Asia is heavily dependent on Middle East oil, okay? But, as you can see, it also goes to Europe as well. And then also to the United States. All right, so the world is dependent on GCC oil. If this war continues, if ground forces are used, then all the oil from the Middle East collapses, and JP Morgan has come out and said that by mid-April, the world will run out of Okay?

So, this is a disaster for the But it's not It's just much more than energy needs, okay? So, because Iran is constraining movement in the Strait of Hormuz, we're seeing seven major shortages. Okay? So, yes, we know oil and LNG are being stopped, okay? But actually, the problem is much worse because look at phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, urea. This is food production. Okay? Primarily used for fertilizers.

In other words, if this war not only will countries run out of energy, they'll also run out of food. Also, look at this. and sulfur are used for what? They're used for semiconductors, the production of semiconductors. Used helium and sulfuric acid in the production of semiconductors, which leads to AI, okay? So, in other words, this war in the Middle East, it's impacting everything in the modern Okay? If this war continues, the global economy could collapse. But again, we're making the assumption that Donald Trump is a genius and this is all part of his big plan, okay?

So, what is his plan? All right. Okay, we know that there's a lot of oil in the Middle East. But, you know, oil is not as rare as people think it is. There's also a lot of oil in Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves, Russia also has a lot of oil. So, in other words, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, if this war in the GCC continues, it doesn't mean the world no longer has oil. All it means is the world is now much more dependent on North America and Russia. And so, the global economy now shifts over to North America and to Russia.

Okay? So, in other words, the United States starts a stupid war in the GCC in the Middle East it can't possibly win, but it still benefits. Because now the world is much more dependent on North America. Okay? Why is Venezuela important? Because America just took over Venezuela in January. Okay? And look, Canada has a lot of oil and Trump is threatening to take over Okay? So, now let's look at who needs the oil.

This map tells you that if you're in the red, you consume more oil than you export. And who are these countries? Well, they're Europe. And they are East Asia. As well as Australia.

So, yes, I understand Donald Trump's an idiot. Yes, I understand that he's going to lose this war in the Middle East. Yes, I understand he's going to destroy the world economy, but for some strange reason, he benefits. The United States benefits because now Europe and China, Japan, Australia, they're much more dependent on North America for resources, for food, for energy.

All right, food. Okay, so nitrogen is important for fertilizers. Okay? You need nitrogen for fertilizers. And what this map tells you is that if you are in the blue or the light blue, it means you produce more nitrogen than you need, so you export it. If you are not in the blue, then you're kind of screwed, okay? So, basically, this area, this area especially, this area. Okay? Europe, some parts of Europe. So, now they need more nitrogen. And again, before they were getting a lot of nitrogen, ammonia, from the Middle East.

And now, where are they forced to get the nitrogen? From here and from here. So, again, yes, I know Donald Trump's losing this war in the Middle East. But in the long term, America stands to Lastly, lastly I want to look at is water, okay? Water is important because water tells us which areas are the most stable. Basically, if you have a lot of water, you are less prone to conflict. But if you don't have that much water, then you're prone to conflict, okay? So we look at So if you're in dark blue, you're good, okay?

Nothing to worry about. If you are in the light blue, you are in a lot of trouble, okay? So if we look at this area, North America, pretty stable because lots and lots of fresh water, okay? If you look at Russia, pretty stable, lots and lots of fresh water. But if you're Africa, you're in a lot of trouble. If you're Europe, you're in a lot of trouble. If you are Middle East, you're in a lot of trouble. If you are Southeast Asia, not much trouble, but you are in some trouble, okay?

So we already see how this map tells us where in the future, basically Russia and the United States, North America, are the most stable parts of the world with the most resources. And therefore, they are the most resilient, the most stable, okay? But if you go to Africa, Europe, Middle East, Southeast Asia, these are points of conflict in the world. So we can expect these places to become much more unstable over time. So in other words, all the United States and Russia have to do is maintain stability and then export resources to these places.

And guess what? If they And then they make a lot of money for themselves. Okay? So, again, I understand Donald Trump's an idiot. I understand this war in the Middle East is stupid, but from a long-term game theory perspective, the United States wins from this disaster. From a long-term perspective, you look at this map and think, "Well, China's pretty good, too, right?" Like, China has a lot of fresh water. The problem with China, though, is it sits on a lot of fresh water that Southeast Asia and India depend on, okay?

So, a lot of water is in the Tibetan Plateau, and it flows into India and into Southeast Asia. If there were drought, using game theory, we can suspect that China might want to keep the water for itself, right? In which case, Southeast Asia and India would be very angry, okay? So, this is a potential flash point that we have to watch out for.

Now, then let's look at who has to buy oil. All right? Look at who buys oil. The United States consumes a lot of oil, but again, it has its own supply of oil. China needs to import a lot of its oil needs, okay? So, China needs to import 75% of its oil needs. India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, okay? Germany. All right. So, China, Japan, South Korea import a lot of oil. And where does it get its oil from? The Middle East, right? So, if it can't get its oil from the Middle East, then these four countries, China, India, Japan, and South Korea will need to get the oil either from the United States or Okay?

And why does this matter? Well, look at this. Look at who owns the most US Treasuries. Basically, if you want to buy a lot of US Treasuries, it means that you are financing American debt. America right now is $39 trillion in debt. That's a lot of money, but as long as people continue to buy US as long as people want to buy US Treasuries, it's not a problem, okay? It's a Ponzi scheme.

So, let's look at this. Who are the biggest holders of US debt? Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, India. Okay, so this is all Asia. And we already said that Asia needs a lot of oil from the Middle East, right? Now, look at others. United Kingdom is second, okay? Cayman Islands is basically just Eu- Europe as well. It's a money la- money operation, okay? Belgium, Luxembourg, Fra- Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland. These countries are Europe.

And again, where did we say most oil from the GCC go? It goes to either E- Asia or Europe. And now because of war in the Middle East, Asia and Europe are now forced to buy oil from either Russia or the United And this is important, okay? This is important because previously, there's a fear that these countries would stop buying US Treasuries because America is too heavily in debt. The American economy is too much of a Ponzi scheme. So, there's this great fear that Europe and Asia would move away from the US dollar and more towards Swiss francs or gold, okay?

Because Europe and Asia need fertilizer, they need energy from the United States and North America, the United States no longer has to worry about its debt, okay? All right? The $39 trillion debt? Not a problem because the entire world is dependent on North America for The policy can keep on going. So again, Donald Trump is an idiot. But he's so stupid, he's become a All right.

That is the goal.

To produce war weapons, okay? Specifically drones, okay? These are drones. All right. Before, at the beginning of the war, Russia was dependent on Iran for drones, But then, what happened over time is Russia started to have its own domestic production, okay? So, imports from Iran have stayed And then, domestic production has gone way up. Which tells us that the Russian economy is industrializing for the production of drones. And Russia is preparing to fight a long, long war. Now, not only can Russia produce its own drones for the war, but it can also export its drones to Iran to fight against the Americans.

And so you're like, "Wait a minute here. Russia is switching its entire economy to war production, which means that will always fight wars." Is that what Russia's planning? And the answer is, yes, it is, okay? And so let me explain why Russia is planning this. This is one called the Third Rome plan, okay? And this comes from the 1996 book, Foundations of Geopolitics, okay? By Alexander Dugin, who I think is one of the smartest thinkers alive today, okay? And his argument is this. His argument is, "This unipolar moment of American It's going to fade away because it's too much focus on secularism, individualism, liberalism, and these ideas break apart community.

Okay? Because as this global order collapses, as the global economy collapses, every other society will face eternal collapse, such as the United States, okay? So, he predicts civil in the United States as left and right go to war against each other. Okay? He predicts collapse of China. He predicts collapse of the Middle East. He predicts collapse of Europe, okay? So, all these places are collapsing. Basically, if you are the main pillar of the global economy, you are much more susceptible to collapse than if you are not, okay? So, what Dugin says is this, okay?

All So, the strategy is, first of all, Russia needs to stay coherent. It needs to defend its territory. It needs to unify its people through nationalism, through religion, through And then what Russia needs to do is figure out allies that would support the Russian outlook. And these allies could include Japan.

Vietnam, India, Iran. Okay? And then, by combining their they become a trading bloc unto themselves. This is an age of nuclear weapons. You don't want to go to war against each other. But this is also an age of collapse. So, as long as you're able to stay coherent, as long as you're able to defend your then you'll come out ahead, okay? So, that's the idea of moving towards war, because war has a power to unify the imagination and the beliefs of the people in your nation. All right? So, using war in order to increase the nationalism, the religion of your society, which will allow you to weather the storm better, okay?

So, that is the grand vision of Alexander Dugin, and in my opinion, he's absolutely correct. And Russia is moving towards this by invading Ukraine, all right? So, the Ukraine invasion was not a response to NATO. The Ukraine invasion was to implement this grand vision for the creation of the Third Rome, to allow Russia to survive the coming collapse of the global order better than anyone else, okay? And so, by taking over Ukraine, you now control 1/3 of the world's carbohydrates and a lot of the world's right? Once you can control Ukraine and the Black Sea, you are now able to export your energy and your food to Africa, to the Middle East, to Europe, to Asia, okay?

So, that's the grand vision for Russia. And again, in my opinion, this makes a lot of sense. The world is collapsing, and so you have to build a fortress. You have to be self-sufficient in order to weather the storm. So, given this, America's like, "Well, we can do the same thing, okay?" And so, the grand plan for America is something called the Technate, okay?

It's something we'll discuss more later on, okay? But first I want to introduce this idea to you, the And the Technate is very simple. It's the idea that, "You know what? Yes, the world is going into chaos. The world is collapsing. But, North America is Right?" So, these past few months, Donald Trump has been picking a fight with Denmark over Greenland, He's been threatening Canada. He's been threatening Mexico. He's been Colombia. He's thinking over Venezuela. He's been threatening Cuba. He's been threatening Honduras, Nicaragua.

Why is he doing this? Cuz they're all part of the grand vision for greater North America. Okay, what Peter Zeihan calls greater North America. The Technate. All right? And this is a response to Moscow's Third Rome. If Moscow is going to build this grand alliance in order to weather the storm, America has no choice but to also build this grand alliance as well in order to protect itself in this coming storm. All right? So, what Donald Trump has recognized is that Putin is right. The world is collapsing. There's nothing we can do to save the world.

So, let's just accelerate it in a way that allows America to benefit from this Okay? So, by collapsing the GCC, by collapsing the Middle East, you make Asia and Europe now dependent on American, North American energy and fertilizer And this allows you the resources, the motivation to create the Technate. Okay? This self-sufficient economy. Okay? Does it make sense? All right? Okay.

All right. So, let us summarize. Okay. So, in November sorry, September 11th, 1991, George H.W. Bush responds to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of Soviet by calling new phrase called the new world And there are three major pillars to the idea of the new world order, okay? The first idea is that America will become the financial capital of the world. America will offshore resources and manufacturing to other And then America will focus primarily on finance, making Wall Street the center of the world, okay? The other idea is the idea of secular multiculturalism.

So, the world is divided, but what can unite everyone is the love of money, the love of So, if we just focus on making money and buying things, then the world will be forever at peace.

And so, we have to let go of borders. We have to let go of community. We have to let go of identity and focus more on consumerism, okay? And the last idea is global domination, where in order for global trade to America will provide security for all. No one has to fight anymore because America will guarantee global peace. If anyone rises to challenge this order, Pax Americana, then America will go destroy it.

So, these are the three main pillars of the new world order as announced by George H.W.

And how do you do that? Well, you move America from a focus on finance to a focus on resources and manufacturing, okay? Basically, you believe the world is going to permanent war and so you provide the resources and the manufacturing in order to facilitate this world war. Meanwhile, America has become Fortress America. It can hide behind its fortress kind of no fortress and it's protected by two oceans, right? Okay? So, this makes sense. Multiculturalism doesn't work. It leads to stupidity such as DEI, woke politics, transgenderism.

It's all Let's focus on what makes us proud to be Americans, which is Christian nationalism, okay? Our love of the white race, our nation, and God. Okay? So, no more of this multiculturalism. No more immigration. No more open borders. No more Democratic Party. Let's just focus on being Christian nationalists, okay? Love the United States, love of Christianity, love of the white race. And the last idea is, "Why should America pay to protect the world? Screw Pax Americana. Let's just do MAGA, okay?" What is MAGA? MAGA is national Let's make America great again by rebuilding America's manufacturing by exploiting the infinite resources that God has given America in order to make sure every American has a decent life, okay?

All right? So, again, I understand Trump is an idiot. Trump has launched America into this stupid war in the Middle East. Trump has pissed off NATO. Trump has pissed off all of America's allies. So, he's a if the goal was to destroy the American destroy the global economy, and rebuild America for the benefit of Americans, then Trump is a genius. And he may go down in history as America's greatest All right. Any questions?

And this is good for America, because it created a lot of jobs. And Americans were productive. But then over time Americans became very lazy. And so they made the Europeans and the Japanese do the work, especially Germany. And then America started to the consumer, okay? So then America started to spend more money than it made, okay? Before it made more money than it spent, and lent this money to Europe and Japan. But then over time this reversed itself.

And then what happened was that America started to shift its manufacturing to And so China is like, "Let me do all the work for you, America. I'll do it for really cheaply, and I'll borrow money from you. So sorry, sorry. I'll lend you money to do it, okay?" So what's happening is that America is becoming lazy, in debt and corrupt. Okay? Because the entire world was working for America for very little money. So America didn't really have to And this led to massive inequality in America, which led to political Which led to an oligarchy, okay?

So, don't think of America as a democracy, think of it as an oligarchy. And so, when that happens, when only a few people benefit from the system, then the American people get really pissed. And so, they elected Donald Trump, okay? And why did Donald Trump get elected? Because he understood intuitively this system does not work. It cannot hold. It cannot be stable for too long. It's going to collapse eventually, okay? The question then is when will it collapse and who will benefit from the collapse? And Donald Trump's like, "Okay, then let's control the collapse so that my friends and I can benefit the most from this collapse, okay?" And Donald Trump has two sets of friends.

The first are the Christians, okay? Christian evangelicals, basically the fanatics who support Israel, as well as the AI, Silicon Valley. All right? So, we learned about the idea of elite overproduction, okay? But the idea is that as a society collapses, the elite start to compete against themselves for resources. And so, right now the elite are the finance people. And the new elite, okay, the counter are the AI people, okay? Artificial intelligence. And it's something we'll discuss later on. Okay, but let me introduce you to the idea.

But basically, the idea is that America is a house of cards, it's a Ponzi scheme, it's corrupt, it's unequal, it's lazy, it's in decline.

So, it's going to fall apart sooner or later, But the question then is like, how do you manage this decline? How do you control this decline in a way that allows you and your friends to benefit the most? Okay? And that's why Donald Trump started this war in the Middle East. Because by starting this war in the Middle East, you're accelerating the process of decline in America, and therefore, you're able to help transform America from an economy that's based on finance to one that's based on resource exploitation and manufacturing.

Okay, does that make sense? All right. Any more questions?

Right? And what you need to recognize about history is that often all three things converge together, okay? Because what is Religion is a long lost memory of our ancient past told through myths and stories. So, there's truth to religion because it's basing a lot of its ideas on personal experience through history, okay? From thousands of years Right? And geopolitics, economics drives historical forces. So, another way of understanding this is that often all these factors are aligned together. We're going to discuss more later on, okay?

Right? And so, why do I look at different factors? Different vectors. And the answer is because I'm making predictions. And if I'm able to analyze an event using eschatology, geopolitics, and history, and they align together, then I can make a pretty accurate prediction that this will happen. I don't know when it will happen. I mean, I don't know who the players are, but I'm pretty sure this event will happen. Okay? Does it make sense? Okay, great. All right. So, we'll continue this next week, okay?