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Russia & Ukraine

37 predictions from 25 videos, made between Apr 2024 and Sep 2026.

38%
hit rate on 4 resolved
1 / 1 / 2
came true / partly / didn't
26
still open
10
recurring calls
Came true38%Didn't happen62%Scorecard

Closing soon

Recurring calls

The same prediction, restated in 3 or more videos

All 37 calls

37 of 37
Open
Said Apr 21, 2026no deadline

Russia will militarize its shadow fleet of about 1,000 ships and engage the US Navy in a war of attrition at sea over the next year or two.

Window runs to April 2028. Russia has sent warships to escort shadow-fleet tankers: a submarine and naval assets during the January 2026 US seizure of the Marinera, and the frigate Admiral Grigorovich near Britain around April 2026. No armed engagement or naval war of attrition with the US has happened.

Open
Closes Apr 2028in 539 days
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.