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32 predictions from 17 videos, made between Jun 2024 and Oct 2026.

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hit rate on 1 resolved
1 / 0 / 0
came true / partly / didn't
22
still open
11
recurring calls

Closing soon

Recurring calls

The same prediction, restated in 3 or more videos

All 32 calls

32 of 32

The Canadian Supreme Court will rule an Alberta secession referendum unconstitutional, drawing Trump into intervening (e.g. a peacekeeping force).

The Supreme Court of Canada has not ruled. Alberta's Court of King's Bench set aside separatist referendum questions (December 2025 and 2026-05-13) over First Nations consultation, and Smith reworded the question. There is no Trump intervention as of 2026-10-15.

Open
Closes Sep 2028in 700 days

Trump will help Argentina reclaim the Falkland Islands, testing the City of London's response, within about two years.

As of 2026-10-15 the Falklands remain British. Milei revived the sovereignty claim in early September 2026 and Trump said the US stance was 'under review', but the US has not formally backed Argentina and the UK reasserted its 'unshakeable' commitment. The deadline is 2028-09-15.

Open
Closes Sep 2028in 700 days

Argentina will reclaim the Falklands with United States backing, over British objections.

As of 2026-10-15 the Falklands remain British. Milei revived the sovereignty claim in early September 2026 and Trump said the US stance was 'under review', but the US has not formally backed Argentina and the UK reasserted its 'unshakeable' commitment. The deadline is 2027-07-20.

Open
Closes Jul 2027in 277 days

After the World Cup, Argentina will get the Falkland Islands back with US backing and Britain can do little about it.

As of 2026-10-15 the Falklands remain British. Milei revived the sovereignty claim in early September 2026 and Trump said the US stance was 'under review', but the US has not formally backed Argentina and the UK reasserted its 'unshakeable' commitment.

Open
Said Jul 18, 2026no deadline
Open
Closes Oct 2044in 6583 days
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.