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War & WWIII

94 predictions from 54 videos, made between Apr 2024 and Oct 2026.

58%
hit rate on 12 resolved
2 / 10 / 0
came true / partly / didn't
65
still open
24
recurring calls
Came true58%Didn't happen42%Scorecard

Closing soon

Recurring calls

The same prediction, restated in 3 or more videos

All 94 calls

94 of 94

Falklands/Malvinas will become a major geopolitical issue within a year, with Argentina making a claim.

Within two months, Milei revived Argentina's Falklands claim in a prime-time address in early Sept 2026, began sanctioning 45 firms involved in oil exploration there, and pressed the claim at the UN General Assembly on Sept 23. Trump said in August he was reviewing US neutrality on the islands.

Came true
Resolved Sep 2026said Jul 2026

The Iran war will expand outward to the Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia), link with the Ukraine war, and eventually involve Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia; it is World War III.

Saudi Arabia is now in active conflict with the Houthis, including Houthi strikes on Riyadh in Oct 2026, and Ukraine's Caspian strikes partly link the two wars. The Caucasus, Turkey and Egypt are not involved. Deadline end-2027.

Open
Closes Dec 2027in 441 days

In about a year the war will spread to the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan-Armenia) and Central Asia, cutting Iran off from Russia and China.

There are early signs: Ukraine struck Iran-Russia supply ships and a missile boat in the Caspian on July 25, 2026, and Iranian drones hit Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) in March. There is no Azerbaijan-Armenia war and no Central Asia fighting, and Iran has not been cut off from Russia or China. Deadline July 2027.

Open
Closes Jul 2027in 275 days

Expect terrorist attacks on critical civilian infrastructure in Central Asia, with the Central Asia conflict erupting in about two years.

There has been no Central Asia conflict or terror wave on infrastructure; the 2026 Global Terrorism Index scored Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at zero. A July 19, 2026 drone strike on tankers at the CPC terminal was tied to the Ukraine war. Deadline July 2028.

Open
Closes Jul 2028in 641 days

The US military will expand rapidly over 10-20 years and occupy the western hemisphere (Mexico, Colombia, Honduras, Cuba, Greenland, possibly Venezuela).

Early signs are mixed. The US captured Maduro in Jan 2026 (before the video) and is building two bases in Greenland. It kept a fuel blockade on Cuba, but Trump said in late Sept 2026 he doesn't expect to need the military there. There is no occupation of Mexico, Colombia or Honduras. Deadline 2036.

Open
Closes Jun 2036in 3522 days
Unresolvable
Said May 26, 2026no deadline

North Korea will create tension on the Korean Peninsula, destabilizing Japan and the US while the US is distracted in the Middle East; the Russia-North Korea defense pact will make sense within a couple of years.

North Korea raised tensions in Sept 2026: two ballistic missile tests in about a week (Sept 20), and Kim Yo Jong threatened 'more offensive' responses to US-led drills. This is routine provocation, not major destabilization. Deadline 2028.

Open
Closes May 2028in 583 days
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.