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Society & culture

69 predictions from 35 videos, made between Jun 2024 and Oct 2026.

50%
hit rate on 3 resolved
1 / 1 / 1
came true / partly / didn't
47
still open
13
recurring calls
Came true50%Didn't happen50%Scorecard

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Recurring calls

The same prediction, restated in 3 or more videos

All 69 calls

69 of 69

Over the next 10 years Japan will try to solve its demographic crisis by massively attracting immigrants.

Early signs against: the Takaichi government is tightening rules (a 426,000 cap on the new skill program from FY2027, a lower SSW target of ~805,000, steep permanent-residency fee hikes and income thresholds from Oct 2026), though foreign employment is at a record 2.57 million. Window runs to 2036.

Open
Closes Jul 2036in 3562 days

As the war and chaos continue, generational inequality in the US will worsen, with more wealth moving from young to old and the young sent to die in the Middle East.

Vague, open-ended claim about intergenerational wealth transfer and young Americans dying in the Middle East. No data yet shows a measurable shift since April 2026; US ground operations in Iran were reported as planned in July 2026 but large-scale US casualties among young conscripts are not established.

Open
Said Apr 9, 2026no deadline
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.