Jiang Xueqin's Predictive History predictions, fact-checked

Track record
1 of 8

How often do his predictions come true?

Outcome
Calls
Share
Came true
37 + 54 partly
49%
Didn't happen
40
51%
757 calls · 131 resolvedAll calls →

Method · Every forward-looking claim from 180 video transcripts, checked against what happened. Partly-true calls count as half; 5 claims that were already underway when he made them are left out.

Came true49%Didn't happen51%Scorecard

Closing soon

Recurring calls

The same prediction, restated in 3 or more videos

US politics

Iran & Middle East

War & WWIII

Economy & markets

More recurring calls

All calls

Every forward-looking claim, newest first

757 of 757
Iran & Middle East

The Iran war will escalate further, in order to destroy the global economy and bankrupt banks exposed to the Gulf and Ukraine, paving the way for digital ID and digital currency.

This was stated Oct 11, 2026, and the three-month window runs to 2027-01-11. As of Oct 15 Trump has pledged no strikes before the Nov 3 midterms, while tanker attacks and the Bab al-Mandab crisis continue. The claimed motive (digital ID and digital currency) is not testable.

The Iran war's oil shock will wreck the global economyGlobal Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture @ 56:43
Open
Closes Jan 2027in 87 days
Economy & markets

The Iran war and loss of Gulf oil/petrodollar recycling will make US Treasuries harder to sell and could trigger a US sovereign debt crisis, ending the US dollar's status as global reserve currency.

No US sovereign debt crisis or default has occurred as of 2026-10-15. There were only reports of tepid Treasury auction demand amid Iran tensions in May 2026. The window runs to 2027-01-11.

The US economy and the dollar will collapseGlobal Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture @ 36:37
Open
Closes Jan 2027in 87 days
Economy & markets

The AI bubble will pop, OpenAI-style 'Ponzi' companies will collapse, and the US government will bail out AI companies by nationalizing data centers and taking stakes.

As of 2026-10-15 there has been no AI bubble pop, no OpenAI collapse and no nationalization of data centers. OpenAI reportedly considered offering the government a 5% stake in July 2026. The window runs to 2027-01-11.

The AI bubble will burst and be nationalizedGlobal Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture @ 39:33
Open
Closes Jan 2027in 87 days
Economy & markets

Anthropic's planned November IPO at a roughly $2 trillion valuation raising about $100 billion will fail, potentially triggering an AI bubble collapse across Oracle, Broadcom and others.

The IPO had not happened as of my research. Anthropic filed confidentially in June 2026, and investors floated a ~$2T valuation for an October/autumn listing. The outcome cannot be judged before the 2026-11-30 deadline.

The AI bubble will burst and be nationalizedGlobal Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture @ 55:05
Open
Closes Nov 2026in 45 days
US politics

Donald Trump will interfere in the Alberta referendum (e.g., claim it was rigged), and it is possible Alberta votes to put secession on the ballot despite polls of only 20-30% support.

The Alberta referendum is on Oct 19, 2026, four days after the check date. Early voting began Oct 13, and Premier Smith cites about 22% support for separation. Trump has not yet called it rigged.

The US will break up and absorb CanadaGlobal Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture @ 51:36
Open
Closes Oct 2026in 3 days
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

About · Method · Contact · Videos · Data

How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.