Society & cultureUnresolvable

All bureaucracies and governments will over time tend toward totalitarianism, and states will always fail in the end.

Timeline No deadline given

Timeframe unspecifiedSaid again 23×

Verdict Unresolvable

A general theory about all governments over time; not checkable.

What he said

over time, all governments, all bureaucracies will tend towards totalitarianism.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 17 videos as An AI surveillance state will control the population

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Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.