Recurring call · Society & culture

Modern Western society is headed for collapse

He repeatedly argues that financialized, materialist Western society is unsustainable and will collapse suddenly from a convergence of shocks. The claim is usually open-ended in timing, framed as decades of chaos.

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Jun 2024 → Oct 2026

first and latest time

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

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Every time he said it

Oct 112026

UnresolvableDeadline Oct 2036

The next 10 years will be a turning point, ending in one of three outcomes: AI people win and become new masters, social collapse from the elite war, or a messianic-age cataclysm.

⋯ 56 days earlier

Aug 162026

UnresolvableDeadline Aug 2036

We are heading toward a calamity beyond anyone's imagination.

⋯ 49 days earlier

Jun 282026

UnresolvableDeadline Jun 2076

The next roughly 50 years will be very bad for humanity, with war, revolution and complete chaos.

Jun 232026

Unresolvable

Contemporary Western/Chinese society, sharing Florence's traits (factionalism, meritocratic pressure, inequality, fraud, collapsing institutional trust), is in decline and headed for serious trouble.

May 282026

Unresolvable

The people in charge are playing a crazy game that will probably lead to the end of the world.

⋯ 7 months earlier

Nov 62025

Unresolvable

The world is heading toward a general decline or collapse.

Oct 112025

Unresolvable

Society must collapse before it can regenerate, since entrenched bureaucrats will not give up power voluntarily.

⋯ 50 days earlier

Aug 222025

OpenDeadline Aug 2035

The West will experience economic collapse as people lose faith in the system and stop working.

Aug 222025

Unresolvable

Collapse of societies is sudden: a perfect storm of simultaneous shocks (plague, drought, war, revolution) will bring down societies in decline.

Aug 82025

Unresolvable

The Western world is going to collapse and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

⋯ 10 months earlier

Oct 152024

Unresolvable

Societies that become too wealthy and abundant ('rat utopia') will lock in elder status, turn violent, and engage in wars that eventually lead to their collapse.

Oct 82024

Unresolvable

All societies, including today's, will eventually collapse because of elite overproduction and rent-seeking; no society can be made permanently stable.

Oct 82024

Unresolvable

Modern financialized economies, where capital grows faster than the real economy and wealth is put into speculation and passive income, will eventually suffer social collapse.

⋯ 4 months earlier

Jun 132024

Unresolvable

Because of climate change the world will eventually collapse.