The Middle East did escalate: a US-Israeli war with Iran began in early 2026, and an Iranian-made drone hit RAF Akrotiri in March 2026. The Ukraine war has not expanded geographically. It remains an intense but contained Russia-Ukraine war, with talks still going on.
Restated in 13 videos as The Middle East war will become World War III
Israel did not resume strikes on Iran soon after the July 2025 visit. In August 2025 it only said it was ready to strike again, and strikes resumed only on 28 Feb 2026.
Russia has said it aims to take Odesa Oblast (per ISW, March 2026) and keeps striking the city. There has been no ground encirclement, no NATO battle at Odesa, and no Turkish entry into the war as of October 2026.
Russia has not taken Odesa or the coastline. Through mid-2026 it hit Odesa with long-range strikes only, with no ground offensive on the city.
Depends on a NATO battle at Odesa, which has not happened. There is no civil war in France, Britain or Poland.
Depends on Turkey entering the war and Erdogan leaving power. Neither had happened by October 2026.
There was no falling out by July 2026. Putin visited Beijing on May 19-20, 2026, and Xi called ties the 'highest level in history'. Russian oil exports to China rose 35% in Q1 2026, and Xi reaffirmed stronger ties at the SCO summit on Aug 31, 2026.
In the 2026 war Russia condemned the strikes and gave indirect help (reported satellite targeting data, drone components, MANPADS pledges), and Putin pledged on 8 Oct 2026 to help end the war. Russia sent no troops, did not defend Iran militarily, and did not prevent Khamenei's killing.
'Ultimately win out in the end' as an Übermensch who restores Byzantium is eschatological, with no timeframe or criteria.
A 'possible' alliance with no timeframe. No German-Russian rapprochement has happened, and Germany is rearming against Russia.
This is a judgment rather than an event. As of October 2026 Ukraine is still fighting and negotiating and has not capitulated. Russia keeps its maximalist demands but has not won.