Recurring call · China & Taiwan

The US and China will strike a grand bargain

He predicts the US-China trade war will end in rapprochement and that China will side with America over Russia. In May 2026 he forecasts an imminent grand bargain including Taiwan; by September 2026 he scales back to a limited compromise.

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Jun 2025 → Sep 2026

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362026today

Every time he said it

Sep 252026

OpenDeadline Sep 2036

His earlier prediction of a US-China grand bargain leading to Taiwan-China unification within 10 years now looks likely to be wrong, though it could still change in 2-3 months.

Sep 252026

OpenDeadline Dec 2026

By the end of 2026 a secret triumvirate among Trump, Xi and Putin will emerge, helping each other maintain power.

Sep 252026

Open

The US and China will never go to war against each other.

Sep 252026

Open

In the long term China and the US will remain strong partners and China will see Russia as a greater threat than the United States.

Sep 252026

Open

Trump and Xi will eventually reach a compromise to get along, though not a grand bargain settling Taiwan.

Sep 252026

Open

Trump, Xi and Putin will propose a new world order of stability, possibly including Iran, earning Trump a Nobel Peace Prize.

Aug 162026

PartlyDeadline Sep 2026

US-China relations will turn around with a compromise after Xi's September 24 visit.

⋯ 3 months earlier

May 212026

Open

The Chinese-Russian partnership will eventually end in a divorce, as China will in the long term side more with America than Russia.

May 142026

Didn't happenDeadline May 2026

A US-China grand bargain will be announced by the day after the class, in which the two nations reconcile and work together to stabilize the global economy.

May 142026

Open

The US-China trade war will end and the two economies will become much more integrated despite the current sanctions and friction.

May 142026

PartlyDeadline Sep 2026

Within a few months Trump will declare that the US opposes Taiwan independence and supports unification of China and Taiwan.

May 142026

Didn't happenDeadline May 2026

Xi Jinping will commit a $1 trillion investment into the US (mainly EV factories) as part of the Beijing deal.

May 142026

Didn't happenDeadline May 2026

As part of the bargain, China will open its financial sector to US firms like BlackRock and Blackstone and Chinese savers will buy USD stablecoins backed by US Treasuries, shifting US debt onto Chinese people.

May 142026

Didn't happenDeadline May 2026

China will gain access to Nvidia chips and the US will gain access to Chinese markets and manufacturing as part of the grand bargain; China will accept US control of the Western Hemisphere's energy supply.

Apr 72026

Came trueDeadline May 2026

China will triangulate between Russia and America and pay both off; Trump visits China in May.

⋯ 9 months earlier

Jul 182025

Didn't happenDeadline Jul 2026

There will be a falling out between China and Russia, happening very quickly.

Jun 122025

OpenDeadline Jun 2030

The US-China trade war will pass and America and China will reach a rapprochement within about five years.