Recurring call · Economy & markets

The Iran war's oil shock will wreck the global economy

From March 2026 he forecasts that loss of Gulf oil will cause soaring fuel prices, unaffordable air travel, inflation and blackouts, and possibly global depression. The impact is repeatedly said to be a few weeks or months away.

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25%

hit rate on 6 resolved

Mar 2026 → Oct 2026

first and latest time

Times said14Resolved6Scorecard

Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

2027today

Every time he said it

Oct 112026

OpenDeadline Jan 2027

The Iran war will escalate further, in order to destroy the global economy and bankrupt banks exposed to the Gulf and Ukraine, paving the way for digital ID and digital currency.

Aug 312026

OpenDeadline Oct 2027

Very high gas prices, famine and energy wars will hit the world soon as a third of world energy is cut off by the Iran war.

Aug 312026

OpenDeadline Dec 2027

There may be extended blackouts in the US next year as a controlled implosion of energy demand.

Aug 312026

OpenDeadline Oct 2027

US inflation will go way up due to the energy and supply chain crisis.

Jul 202026

OpenDeadline Nov 2026

The Iran war's impact on the global economy will be felt strongly later in the fall and the world three months out will be unimaginable.

Jul 182026

OpenDeadline Dec 2026

Oil prices will soon skyrocket as China's demand suppression becomes unsustainable.

Jul 112026

Didn't happenDeadline Aug 2026

Within a few weeks a massive global emergency will hit, with food shortages, inflation and skyrocketing oil prices, because cheap Middle East oil cannot be substituted.

⋯ 3 months earlier

Apr 72026

Didn't happen

Fuel prices will skyrocket enough to collapse civilian aviation, with flights costing about 10 times as much, happening very quickly.

Apr 22026

Didn't happenDeadline Apr 2026

JP Morgan says the world will run out of oil by mid-April; continued war means shortages of fertilizer, food and semiconductor inputs, and possible global economic collapse.

Mar 262026

Open

Global recession if Iran keeps controlling Hormuz, with oil above $100 to $150 for years (Larry Fink's view cited).

Mar 242026

Partly

Without Gulf oil exports, China and the global economy will be severely damaged; the global economy is effectively dead.

Mar 242026

Partly

Air travel will become very expensive and vacations unaffordable.

Mar 192026

Open

The world is heading towards an economic depression and rupture, with shortages such as no avocados and no affordable flights.

Mar 32026

PartlyDeadline Jul 2026

The global economy will suffer greatly over the next few months because of the Hormuz disruption.