The US jet fuel index nearly doubled (from $2.50 to $4.88/gal by April 2), but it fell back to about $2.70 by mid-June. Fares rose roughly 8-27%, nowhere near 10x, and civil aviation did not collapse; Delta reported record ticket-sales days.
Restated in 11 videos as The Iran war's oil shock will wreck the global economy
He predicted a full-scale invasion and a national draft. Instead, the US agreed a two-week ceasefire on 2026-04-07, the day of the video, and later extended it. No invasion or draft has followed as of Oct 2026.
Trump's April 7 ultimatum ended in a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire on April 8 instead of a campaign against Iran's civilian infrastructure. Iran did strike some Gulf oil, power and desalination sites (e.g. Kuwait), but there was no 20% loss of world energy that de-industrialized the world or caused global famine.
The Hormuz closure after the Feb 28, 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran did cause a global fertilizer shortage, and the UN/FAO warned in Apr-May 2026 that tens of millions risk hunger (Sahel, NE Nigeria). But no IPC famine attributable to fertilizer has been confirmed in Africa or South Asia; Sudan's May 2026 IPC found no area currently in Famine. Deadline (end-2026) not yet reached.
Germany is remilitarizing: its military service law took effect in January 2026, and early medical-screening summonses sparked protests in September 2026. But it is not at war, and compulsory conscription has not been activated.
Part of this is happening: the US has kept a naval blockade of Iranian ports near Hormuz (4 vessels disabled and 135 turned back by Oct 2026) and a fuel blockade of Cuba. Trump has not exerted authority over Greenland, though talks on 3 more US bases there were reported in April-May 2026. The 'next year' window runs to about Apr 2027.
Window runs to April 2028. Russia has sent warships to escort shadow-fleet tankers: a submarine and naval assets during the January 2026 US seizure of the Marinera, and the frigate Admiral Grigorovich near Britain around April 2026. No armed engagement or naval war of attrition with the US has happened.
Trump visited Beijing on May 14-15, 2026; that date had already been announced on Mar 25. Beijing then hosted Putin on May 19-20 to reaffirm ties, so China did balance between the two. The 'paying both off' part is vague and not clearly evidenced.
As of 2026-10-15 the war that began on 2026-02-28 is still going. The US has not been defeated or forced out of the Middle East. About 9,000 more US troops began deploying on 2026-10-01, and Trump has said there will be no strikes before the 3 Nov midterms. Iran has kept up pressure on Hormuz and on tankers.
The war has not ended. The US is not out of the Middle East, Iran has not been broken up, and the global economy has not been destroyed. The US and Iran did negotiate a temporary deal (the Islamabad Memorandum, 2026-06-17), but it collapsed on 2026-07-08.
'They will never ever learn' is a value judgment with no test. No new ground invasion has occurred as of Oct 2026.