Game Theory #15: The Return of History

When the Berlin Wall fell, there was an American State Department official named Francis Fukuyama. And he wrote a very influential essay called The End of History. For decades capitalism was in a struggle with. And in his essay Fukuyama argued that the triumph of capitalism would come to the end of history. Meaning we now know what humanity must strive for, which is a liberal consumer democracy, where people have the freedom to buy whatever they want. And this for him was the apex of human civilization. And this creates what is called the unipolar moment.

Where America is the global hegemon. And it creates a world that is heavily globalized and very individualistic. And this is a very unique moment in human history. And we've come with this war in Iran to the end of this moment. All right? So, let me first explain the three major characteristics of this unipolar moment. The first is what I call Pax Americana. Where American military power guaranteed peace in the entire world. And this is unique in human history, where for the first time there was a power that was able to dominate the entire globe.

And America was able to do so through three mechanisms, okay? The first is of course its military power, but specifically aerial supremacy. Okay? Which is backed up by special forces and the CIA. So, the CIA was able to infiltrate every single government in the world and identify who would be loyal to the American Empire and then promote this person. If there were individuals that challenged the American Empire, these people were demoted or eliminated. Nations that proved problematic, for example, maybe Syria or Libya, special forces went in to sabotage the economy and then aerial power went in to destroy the government.

And so, this created Pax Americana. Now, what's good about this is that it did bring peace to very problematic regions. For example, in Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea, China, Vietnam do not compete against each other, they just participate in the global economy, which brought tremendous and prosperity to the East Asia region.

And basically what I mean by that is the So, believe it or not, but the internet was created not to actually help you communicate and to watch pornography, it was actually to have a mass surveillance system over the entire human population so that the Pentagon, the military, knew exactly the vibe or the culture, the attitudes, the emotions of each region.

Okay, what this means is American power hid behind multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, such as the World Bank, such as the World Trade Organization. And so, people didn't that the American empire was strong-arming everything. They believed that the world was fair and just, and through logic and reason and debate, they could present their case. All right? So, for the longest time, this Pax Americana provided peace and stability to the world, which brought tremendous prosperity.

But this COVID is constantly mutating and they haven't done enough trial research. So, is it really safe to take these?" And whether they were Chinese or American, their response was the same, which is, "How dare you question science? You are a peasant. Have you gone to school? Can you not think?" Okay? And it shows you how science has become the new religion of the world. And if you think about it, the scientists around the world, they're actually transnational priests. Okay? And science is an international brotherhood, where if you're a scientist in China, you're not actually loyal to China, you're actually loyal to the international order of science because that's how you get promoted, right?

You get published in Nature or Science. If you win an award, like a Nobel Prize, that's how you get rewarded, okay? So, you're better off being loyal to the brotherhood of science rather than your own nation-state. And of course, it is the American empire that controls science.

Is there really a difference between $100 million and $100 million? There's absolutely no difference. You can't spend it. But you want to achieve as much as possible. And as a result, you focus your entire life on accumulating as much as possible. Okay? So, these are the three main pillars of the unipolar moment. And again, in the beginning, which was maybe the early '90s, this led to tremendous peace and prosperity throughout the world. The problem, though, is that over time, these three pillars started to decay. Right? So, Pax Americana started to itself ignore the rules-based international order, which itself created.

Right? So, America started to bomb countries such as Libya and Syria without international approval. Most recently, it went to attack Iran without even asking for the opinion of the world, without even caring what the world thought. Okay? So, this leads to the idea of hubris.

Maybe the first generation appreciates the importance of collaboration, of consensus. But the second generation, the children, are arrogant. They have hubris. They want to enjoy their power. Okay? So, that's problem one. The problem with science, religion, basically becomes a religion in itself, orthodoxy. So, that science does not become the main engine of innovation in the world, it becomes the main engine of orthodoxy or suppression. That's why for the past 20, 30 years, we've seen very little in terms of technological. Don't tell me Silicon Valley is a center of innovation in the world, okay?

All they do is make food delivery apps. It's been a long time since we've seen massive innovation in the world. What we've seen in these past 20, 30 years is the scaling out, the popularization of innovation, right? Where American technology is spread throughout the world, especially in China. But we have not seen actually major innovation in science itself. All right. And the third thing, the university of the US dollar leads to printing dollars, okay? Or just basically. Where because America is able to print as much US dollars as it wants to fund its corruption, it does so, okay?

So the US dollar has lessened in value. And what this means is basically it's made inequality worse, it's made corruption worse, it's made people very lazy. If you're a young person, you're like, "You know what? No matter how hard I work, I'm still screwed in the end because the boomers, the older generation, have so much more money than I do. I can never catch up. So I refuse to play this game. Either I refuse to play this game, so I quiet quit, you know, complaining like that, or I gamble.

I pray that my put I'm going to lost in Bitcoin, it'll go up to $10 million or the stock market or sports betting, okay? That's why in America gambling has become so popular. All right? So this has led to today basically. All right? So we shouldn't see this war against Iran as just a decision of one person, Donald Trump, or the machinations of a country, Israel. Really, this war in Ukraine is happening because we come to the end of the unipolar moment because the American empire has become corrupt, self-indulgent, lazy, arrogant.

All right? With the end of the American empire, with the end of Pax Americana, we are shifting towards a new world. And this new world, some will survive, most will not, okay? Because. And this is true throughout history where an empire declines and the world order is shifting, where there's a paradigm, people are forced to make a hard choice of either adapt or die. All right? So, let me share with you how the world needs to change if it is to survive. Basically, what has to happen is we have to move from an emphasis on efficiency. Okay?

That is the main in the future. Today, it's really about how to make things as cheap as possible and get it to as many people as quickly as possible to make as much money as possible, okay? The idea of generating as much profit as possible. The idea of resilience is to appreciate that there will be a series of crises and what you need to do is focus on adapting and surviving these crises, okay? So, for a nation, for a community to survive in the future, there have to be three major changes.

If you're able to make these three major changes, you will survive. If you do not make these changes, you will be eliminated, okay? It will be survival of the fittest. All right. So, the first thing you need to do is move from to spirituality.

Right now, the entire world, these nation-states, have convinced the that what matters is your material. If you are driving a car, if you have enough food to eat, then you should shut up and obey because we're doing a good job. Okay? But in the future, governments can't do that because there's not enough resources to go around. Therefore, the government has to make you believe that what matters is your happiness, your well-being, your spirituality. And that usually means a renewed focus on religion. Okay? That's the first thing.

Second thing is to move from a system of to community and family. All right. And what this means is today what you're taught in school, what you're taught in society is what matters is you, me, okay? The ego. If it's doing well for me, it's good. I don't actually care about other people. In the future, you have to focus on building a community, on helping. And the last major shift is from the old to the young. Okay? And this is very simple. And this is actually the hardest thing to do, which is like today, most countries, especially the wealthy Western industrial nations, are controlled by the baby boomers, the elderly, the gerontocracy.

They have all the money, they have all the power. But for society to thrive in the future, this power needs to shift to a younger generation. Ideally, maybe in their 30s, okay? The younger the better. And you think this is easy to do? It's not. Because first of all, these baby boomers have access to the best health care in the world. They have a lot of money, and they really enjoy living. And they're also really selfish. Okay? So, this is actually the hardest problem to solve for most Western societies. How do you transfer power from the old to the young?

And historically, we've never ever faced this problem before. Never. Because the old simply don't live that long, okay? Now, baby boomers are living to at least 100 years old. So, they have another 20 years ahead of them in power. Meanwhile, the young cannot develop the experience and expertise in order to lead the nation. So, whichever nation actually speaks out this problem first, how do you really own and give power to the young, will most likely thrive in the new world that's. And if you were to ask me which nation would most likely achieve this first, I would say Japan.

And the reason is very simple. Because in Japan this problem is the most present. They have the oldest population in the world. And so, they need to resolve this issue really, really quickly. Okay? And maybe in the next five, 10 years, and I think that Japan will actually resolve this issue. But it may be the only nation that's able to resolve this issue. Because it's so. You love your grandparents. Do you want to see your grandparents die? Of course not. Okay, you're going against human biological nature.

All right, okay. All right, so that's the main argument I want to make to you today, okay? So, what we're going to do now is we're going to look at how the world is going to transform because of what's happening in the circle of moves, because of this war in Iraq. Okay. All right. So, basically we're in a new world because our world today is built entirely on access to cheap petroleum products, cheap energy. Right? Why are you allowed to be in school learning from me rather than in the fields farming?

Because of energy, right? Because of oil from the Middle East. Your computer is based on what? This camera that's filming me is based on what? Petroleum. This pen, petroleum. This clothing, petroleum. The medicine you eat, petroleum. The food that you eat comes from fertilizers, which is based also on petroleum. So, basically everything in this room, everything in the world is based on cheap petroleum. The entire world economy, the main foundation is cheap petroleum. So, what happens in a world where petroleum is no longer? Well, now you have a. You need a massive rebalancing in the world, okay?

The other thing about the world is this is the GCC countries, okay? The Middle East countries. And as you can see, this is really important to see, around the year 2005, they started to have massive account surplus.

And that's why we have these skyscrapers, these malls, these roads, okay? Because China was able to import all this cheap oil from the GCC. And then the GCC would take this money, okay? And then invest it back into the stock market. But not just that, they would invest it in Africa. They would invest in infrastructure. So, for the longest time, the Chinese economy and the GCC are the two main pillars of the entire global economy. Okay? And what this means is that if the GCC no longer is able to export oil, this is going to have a major impact on China.

And together, the two are going to have a major impact on the global economy, okay? Basically, the global economy is dead. All right. Okay, another thing that you may not be aware of is today, flying around the world is very, very simple to do. You get up, like if you want, what we can do now is get our mobiles out, go to a website, and look at where we're going to fly to, and then book that flight for tonight. Pay using a credit card, take a taxi to the airport, get on a flight, and we're there the next morning.

That's really, really impressive. Guess what, guys? You couldn't do this 20 years ago. Okay? The technology was around, but it was not widely available. Now, look at this, where the entire world is interconnected, okay? This is a pretty stark chart where in 1950, it was considered a tremendous luxury to fly. You had to be a millionaire, basically, to want to fly for vacation, okay? Everyone else just drove their car. Now, it's like anyone can drive. And again, this happened just in the past, basically, 30, 40 years. And this, of course, is because of Pax Americana, where Pax Americana will guarantee there's a cop in the world, and therefore, planes can just fly around.

Otherwise, be shot down. All right. This world is coming to an end. In the future, flights will be very expensive, and vacations will be unaffordable. All right. This is the internet, guys. Now, you don't know this. You think that the internet is just one computer, and then, boom, the internet is there. No, actually, the internet is under these cables that connect the entire world. And unfortunately, there's a war going on right here. And unfortunately, it's really easy for Iran to cut off the undersea cables, which would lead to internet disruption for maybe 20, 30% of the world.

Okay? Africa, northern Africa, India, the Middle East, maybe parts of Europe will lose internet access. You think, "Okay, well, that's fine. They just won't watch Netflix anymore." No, guys, okay? The entire world economy is based off the. So, if you want to bank, if you want a basic finance, okay? This is going to have a huge impact in the world. And this can happen anytime. Where for the reason there's a war going on in the Strait of Hormuz, some cables get cut off, and then suddenly you've lost internet access.

And this would basically cause major disruptions throughout the world. All right. Okay. So, one thing that you notice about this world is the sheer amount of population growth. Where after World War II, because of Pax Americana, you see a massive boom in population. And unfortunately, this is not sustainable. It is not possible for the planet to sustain 8 billion people. Many of whom want to fly around the world twice a year. Who want to drive an SUV. Who want to have food, who want to have avocados every single day.

They want to have like cherries every single day, okay? This population growth is not sustainable. And basically what happens is this. When you are too off balance, when there's a correction, the correction is pretty extreme, okay? So, this problem by itself, the fact that we have so many people, means like if there's a crisis, the population will see a massive shrinkage, okay? You're like, "Okay, how?" And the answer is food scarcity. Food today is pretty common, but food is based on global trade, okay? So, let me show you what I mean by this.

All right. So, the yellow, okay, are places that need fertilizer to grow food, meaning their land is not good for farming. So, they need fertilizer to grow food. They also have large population. As you can see, a lot of this is based in Africa and maybe Central Asia and parts of South America. Ammonia is a chemical produced from oil, from petroleum, that is fundamental for fertilizers. And as you can see, this is mainly in the north of the world. What allows for 8 billion people is the fact the north is able to export fertilizer to the south.

And that's it, guys. You understand? If this were to stop for whatever reason, people in the south would be in a lot of. All right? So, as you can see, this trade in fertilizer is what sustains a global population of 8 billion people. Again, if there is a disruption to this trade, the people in the south are in a lot of. All right.

If you're in the green, you're okay, okay? But if you are in the red, you are in a lot of trouble, okay? You are in a lot of trouble if you are in. But honestly, if you are not in the green, you could still be in a lot of trouble because again, what we're looking for is resilience.

The idea of efficiency is let's imagine the best case scenario and try to make as much money out of it as possible, okay? The idea of resilience is let's imagine the worst case scenario and see if we can survive it. Basically, if you have food security issues, you are facing a massive problem, okay? Because again, we're imagining the worst case scenario. And again, I hate to say this, but you should be worrying right now, okay? And where's China? Not in the green dots, okay?

There's something that national leaders in the world have been talking about right now, food scarcity. All right. The countries that suffer from food, some of them also suffer from food scarcity, okay? I from water, water scarcity.

Okay? All right, we got this. All right. Okay? So, basically, this area is not a problem. I would say that water is far more problematic than food. And again, I hate to say this, but if you are any country, what's going on here?

And so, this leads to conflict around the world. And again, countries that suffer the most from food issues and water issues also are most likely to come into conflict with other people, okay? So, this is a map of nations at war. The red means that they are at war, okay? And you can see Africa and the Middle East is under a lot of conflict and a lot of. While at the same time they're suffering from food scarcity and water issues. All right? So, what you will see, sorry, another issue I want to bring up is that of. And I mean megacities is any cities that have over 10 million people.

And you think, "Wow, megacities are amazing because you have like shopping malls and you have like skyscrapers. That's great." No, no, no, guys. Megacities are really bad, okay? Megacities should not exist. They exist because of. Because what megacities do is they're able to bring in a lot of people, have them specialize in a particular area, make it industrial, and then export to the rest of the world, okay? And where are most megacities located? Well, they're located in India and in. This is a problem because India and China both suffer from food and water issues.

If you are to be resilient, you actually want most of your population not in cities, but in the countryside growing food. Because first of all, they are self-sufficient. Second of all, you will have a food supply. Unfortunately, right now, China imports a quarter of its food. And also remember, food also requires energy to grow, right? So, China imports 75% of its oil. This brings up the question of how resilient is China. Okay, not just China, but also any big country with a megacity or too many megacities, India specifically, will face problems in the. Again, if you're a national leader, you should be worried right now, okay?

All right. With this war and disruptions to global trade, we should expect massive in nations that are not very resilient, okay? That have very little freedom, that have food issues, and which have water issues, okay? And so, you would see revolutions, you would see wars, you would see famines, which leads to what? Which leads to massive migration, okay? And so, these are trends. These are migration trends that we're already seeing where people from Africa, Middle East are moving to Europe, and people from South America and Latin America are moving to the United States, okay?

And we should expect these trends to not only continue but to accelerate by maybe 100 times. And you think to yourself, okay, well, what Europe and North America can do is just build walls, right? They should right now build a wall because you're going to see a massive influx of refugees due to food and water issues. And unfortunately, Europe and North America have a huge problem. The problem, of course, is aging. Okay? So, in 2020, the countries in purple are countries that have a significant elderly population. And this is 2050, where the entire northern hemisphere will have a significant elderly population.

So, the north, the industrial economies, are aging very rapidly, which means their only option is to bring in cheap workers from the south who are fleeing conflict zones in order to run their economies. Right? The problem with this, of course, is that this will lead to cultural conflict where the local populations, native populations, will feel they're being replaced by these refugees and these immigrants. And this will probably lead to civil conflict within North America and within. And unfortunately, there's really no way around this issue. Because the elderly are in control, and they want people to mow their lawns.

They want people to nurse them. They want people to deliver food to them. And unfortunately, young people don't have to do that because their parents have money. Okay? So, one way around this issue is by importing cheap immigrant labor.

And they refused to work with each other, but the system worked. Okay? It's always more expensive, it was not so convenient, but it still works. So, this does not mean the end of global trade, it just means much more limited global trade.

So, the last thing I want to talk about is religion. Because remember, the idea of resilience is you need people to focus more on spirituality and less on materialism because if they focus on materialism, their lives are going to get worse and worse. Okay? So, you need to cause a national spiritual rejuvenation in your country. And if you are in the gray, you might have issues, okay? Why? Your people are not religious and too materialistic. And East Asia, okay? Japan, China, Korea, Vietnam are especially non-religious. That's going to be a problem for them in the future, okay?

All right. So, let's just summarize what we've learned so far. What are some major trends that we should expect over the next 10 to 20 years? Again, I just say this, all right? If you really believe that next week Donald Trump and Iran are going to come to a peace agreement, if you believe that maybe in five, six months both Iran and the United States will exhaust themselves, the global economy will suffer too much, and then they'll just stop the war and things will go back to normal, I don't know what to tell you, okay?

You're living in a fantasy world. You have to wake up and recognize that this is the end of the unipolar moment and we're moving towards a new world. And you either choose to adapt to this new world or you will die. It's that simple. All right? So, a massive trend is deindustrialization and deurbanization. People in the cities will have to move back to the countryside, especially young people. Okay? They have to learn like real. No more cryptocurrency trading for you guys, okay? Learn how to milk a cow or kill a chicken or grow food, whatever, okay?

But just do something useful for your life. Nationalism and remilitarization is very important where you have to get young people who are willing to fight and defend your land. Okay? And that means getting them to believe that your nation deserves to be strong. So, whichever nations are most ready and most able to excite their young population into fighting wars will be the ones who will be most. Mercantilist systems, basically independent trading blocs. Resource wars is a very big thing, okay? Famines, genocides, slavery. Okay? So, remember, for most of human history, humans were the cheap energy.

If you don't have access to cheap oil, well, then you're going to enslave human beings. All right? This is not a pretty future, but it is a future that could happen and you have to mentally prepare yourself for this possibility.

Mass migration where people in the south are most likely to suffer from resource wars over water and food and people, so they escape to Europe and North America.

Revolution, civil wars, political instability in America and in Europe, the baby boomers refuse to retire from the scene. And these are aging. Massive inequality, massive corruption, massive stagnancy. And so this will lead to chaos in the streets, okay? Religion is a big thing.

If you are not religious, I'd actually look into the possibility of becoming religious, okay? It's been very useful for what's going to happen later on. These are things I will talk about more in the future, okay? But I will bring them up now. Like how do I see the world in 10, 20 years' time? All right? So I will say this. I think that there will be eventually an alliance between Russia and Germany in Europe. Maybe for the next 5, 10 years, Germany and Russia will go to war against each other, but eventually what the two will figure out is they're better off actually working together than fighting against each other.

You have Pax Judaica. Remember the entire point of this war in Iran from Israel's perspective is to knock out America from the Middle East and establish itself as the local hegemon. And then it becomes Pax Judaica.

So I think Israel will come to dominate the Middle East. But then you're like, "What about Iran?" Okay. And like I used to try to understand, if the United States were to leave the, and Israel and Iran had to go to war against each other, what would happen is they would say, because Israel is like, "I don't want Persia." And then Iran is like, "I don't want Israel." And Israel has nuclear weapons. So, they would agree to split the Middle East up where Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel controls the Levant, right?

Historically, actually, the Israelis, the Jewish people, they hated the Greeks, they hated the Romans, but they actually got very happy with the Persians. So, there's this history going back where Persians and Jews actually get along very well. And in fact, in the Middle East, the place outside Israel with the largest Jewish population is Iran. And they're very well treated there. Okay? So, I don't see why, if America were to leave the scene, why couldn't Israel and Iran come to a mutually satisfactory agreement that benefits both nations, right? Japan.

Again, I think the major problem facing all Western industrial nations is the aging crisis. What do you do with these people who are 90 years old? They can't get out of the house. Their brains aren't really functioning properly, but they still control all the money, all the power, and they're extremely influential. What do you do?

In most countries, you can't do anything about it. But Japan is a very special country where the elderly have a moral obligation to the nation, to the people. So, it could be a situation where Japan is in a lot of trouble, and the elderly voluntarily choose to exit power and give it to the. All right? But I think Japan is the only nation that would do this voluntarily. Every other nation, basically there has to be wars in order for the young to arise to. All right. The American Holy Empire.

The nation that is most capable of the next few decades of tribulation, of crisis, is America. Why? Because America is so incredibly, incredibly wealthy, okay? It's protected by two oceans. It really controls Canada and Mexico. So, think of America as not just the continent of America, but really as the entire North American and Latin American, okay? That entire sphere is basically America. So, it has unlimited resources. It has unlimited population. And also, America and the Americans are the most creative, the most entrepreneurial, and the most energetic people in the world.

So, I would bet against America, all right? But what I think will happen is that America will need a new identity in order to survive the age of tribulation. They'll go from Pax Judaica. Oh, sorry. Pax Americana, which is a secular idea, to one that is much more nationalistic, that is more focused on community and nation. That means embracing Christianity. Okay? And I think that Christianity is what will be the force that will rebuild America after the many crises America will face over the next few years.The last thing that will happen is techno-Marxism, okay?

Where nations that have the resources want to institute an AI surveillance state to better marshal the limited resources, to basically better control its people. And this is something we'll talk about later on, but basically, you will have this division of people into different classes. Right at the very top, you have freedom, but people at the very bottom become slaves or serfs. Right? Okay. So, that is it for trends I see in the future. Again, I didn't say this, but you have to give the illusion that this war will end soon, and that once this war ends, then we'll go back to the things before this war, okay?

No, the world has completely. We're not going back to the old world. We're going to a new world. And what this new world will look like is something that we can choose to control.

All right, any questions? All right.

All right. So, the best way to understand the geopolitical situation is that it's constantly in flux. It's constantly dynamic, okay? Meaning, you cannot easily divide nation-states into enemies anymore. The alliances will constantly shift over. And the nation-state system will also break apart into much more resilient communities. It's possible that nation-states become a series of city-states. Okay? So, basically think about the world in maybe the 1930s. Or maybe even China during the Warring States period, okay? Basically, I can't tell you that we'll go to a new world and then this is what it will look like.

No, it will constantly change over time. Okay? Alliances will constantly shift over time. It's possible that in the beginning, in East Asia, maybe Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Russia combine to contain China because they see China as the hegemon. But then they're like, "Wait a minute here. Japan's rising in power. So, let's combine against Japan." Okay? It's a dynamic situation. But basically, what you have to understand is that everything that you've been taught in school, everything that you understand about the world, everything you believe to be true about the world will change.

And so, you have to open your mind and be ready for constant political flux. And does that make sense? All right. Any more questions, guys? All right. So, now that we've looked at the world ahead for the next 10, 20, 50 years, who knows how long, what I'll do in the next class is examine how this war between the United States and Iran will eventually