The US did fight Iran (strikes in June 2025, then a war from Feb 28, 2026), but it has not retreated to its borders. Instead it sent more than 17,000 troops to the region and keeps a presence there under a shaky ceasefire. So far the signs point against an isolationist retreat.
Restated in 21 videos as America loses a war with Iran
Saying 'Putinism' will be the dominant ideology for 50 years is too loosely defined to test against any concrete outcome.
The window runs to 2034-2044. The US-Iran war and the US reputation falling behind China's in Pew polling fit a multipolar trend, but no settled order of regional hegemons exists yet.
Putin is alive and in power as of October 2026, so the condition hasn't happened yet.
Europe is moving toward militarization: Germany's new military service law took effect in January 2026 and summonses for medical screening drew student protests. But Russia has not directly threatened Germany, France or Britain militarily, so the 'warrior culture' outcome remains open.
A long-term conditional ('after Ukraine'). The Ukraine war has not ended, and Russia has not started a wider war for territory as of October 2026.