Recurring call · War & WWIII

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge

He predicts the US-led unipolar order will give way to regional hegemons, most often Germany in Europe, Japan in East Asia and Israel in the Middle East. Later versions add an American Technate and a Russian Third Rome, lasting perhaps 10 to 20 years.

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Apr 2024 → Aug 2026

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

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Every time he said it

Aug 162026

UnresolvableDeadline Aug 2036

Israel, Japan, Poland, North Korea and Iran are rising powers while the US and China decline.

⋯ 2 months earlier

Jun 72026

Open

The US military will be privatized and merged with the militaries of Israel, Japan and Germany.

May 212026

Open

If America collapses, US military theaters would relocate to host nation-states: forces in East Asia support Japan, in Europe Germany, in the Middle East Israel.

May 72026

Open

Germany and Japan will be rearmed by the US and rise as military powers, with North Korea, Poland and Turkey also amassing power amid the chaos.

Apr 92026

OpenDeadline Apr 2046

The world is moving to a multipolar order (American Technate, Russian Third Rome, Israeli Pax Judaica) that will last only about 10 to 20 years.

⋯ 3 months earlier

Jan 202026

Unresolvable

Germany will one day become a great empire ruling at least Europe, because it lost both world wars.

Jan 202026

Open

Japan will come to dominate East Asia as a great empire.

Jan 202026

Open

Israel will emerge as one of three great empires of the future (with Germany and Japan).

Jan 62026

OpenDeadline Dec 2075

Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.

⋯ 6 months earlier

Jul 112025

OpenDeadline Jul 2045

Over the next 10-30 years the US, Germany, Japan and Israel will dominate their regions as the world moves from unipolar to multipolar.

⋯ 13 months earlier

Jun 72024

Open

America will retreat from the world, ushering in a multipolar world.

May 312024

OpenDeadline May 2044

A multipolar world with regional hegemons will emerge over the next 10 to 20 years.

Apr 242024

Open

The decline of the American empire will last decades or centuries and the world will fragment into regional blocs (Germany in Europe, Japan in East Asia, Israel in the Middle East), especially if the US loses an Iran war.