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Recurring call · Iran & Middle East

America loses a war with Iran

He repeatedly claims the US cannot win a war with Iran because of terrain, asymmetric warfare and lack of political will, and that defeat will force America out of the Middle East. Early versions are conditional on a future war; from March 2026 he says the US is losing the ongoing war, though it may drag on for years.

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hit rate on 4 resolved

Apr 2024 → Aug 2026

first and latest time

Times said25Resolved4Scorecard

Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

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Every time he said it

Aug 162026

OpenDeadline Aug 2046

A US ground invasion of Iran would become a quagmire lasting decades.

Aug 12026

OpenDeadline Aug 2028

The US will lose the Iran war, though it will take over the Suez Canal and control the Strait of Gibraltar.

⋯ 3 months earlier

Apr 282026

The US will keep losing the Iran war and grow desperate enough to commit war crimes against civilian infrastructure.

Apr 212026

America will lose the war in Iran and be forced to retreat from Iran, but will keep Iran in chaos to control choke points.

Apr 92026

America will ultimately lose the war in Iran because Americans lack the political will, regardless of technology or money spent.

Apr 72026

America will ultimately lose the war with Iran because it fights for optics rather than economics, organization and logistics.

Apr 22026

A ground invasion of Iran would fail and America would lose the war, leading to the death of the American empire, loss of the petrodollar and dollar reserve status, and global economic collapse.

Mar 262026

America is losing the war with Iran and will ultimately lose it, though the timing is unknown and an empire can drag it out for up to 20 years.

Mar 262026

America will be forced to retreat from the Middle East, leaving two regional powers, Iran and Israel.

Mar 122026

OpenDeadline Mar 2030

The US will lose the Iran war and CENTCOM will redeploy to Israel.

Mar 102026

Iran will probably ultimately win the war against the US.

Mar 52026

The United States will lose the war with Iran.

Mar 52026

Iran will ultimately triumph over America.

Mar 52026

If the US launches a ground invasion of Iran it will have lost the war.

⋯ 3 months earlier

Dec 182025

The United States will go to war with Iran; it will devastate both countries, Iran will neither win nor lose, America will lose and be forced out of the Middle East, handing its military assets to Israel.

Dec 182025

America will lose the war with Iran and be forced out of the Middle East.

⋯ 6 months earlier

Jun 182025

The US regime-change strategy (bombs, propaganda, money) will not work against Iran; Iran holds the strategic advantage and US/Israel cannot occupy the country.

Jun 122025

A US invasion of Iran would likely be lost because of Iran's mountainous terrain and could mean the end of the American empire.

⋯ 12 months earlier

Jun 72024

The US cannot win a war against Iran; it will drag on.

May 312024

If the US fights Iran it will have to retreat to its borders and become isolationist.

May 292024

A US invasion force in Iran would be trapped and the US cannot win the war.

May 242024

The US will lose a war with Iran, and the war will be brutal for Iran, with tens of millions of Iranians dying.

May 222024

Shock and awe will not work against Iran because Iran is mountainous, not desert.

May 102024

The United States will lose the war with Iran, forever changing the global order.

Apr 242024

In a US-Iran war, Iran would prevail through asymmetric warfare (drone swarms against carriers), even though the US is militarily stronger.