Home/China & Taiwan/China is finished as a rising power

China & TaiwanUnresolvable

North Korea has a better future than China.

Said Jan 20, 2026 in Game Theory #5: The World Game @ 38:11

Timeline No deadline given

Timeframe unspecifiedSaid again 8×

Verdict Unresolvable

This is a vague comparative judgment with no metric or timeframe.

What he said

you're forced to conclude that in East Asia, North Korea has a better future than China

Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 7 videos as China is finished as a rising power

Sep 252026

OpenDeadline Sep 2036

China's provinces/regional factions will break away from Beijing within the next 10 years.

Sep 252026

OpenDeadline Sep 2036

Over the next 5-10 years China will see a surge of messianic and superstitious movements amid economic collapse and floods.

Aug 162026

UnresolvableDeadline Aug 2036

China is basically done with no real growth potential.

⋯ 3 months earlier

May 282026

China is in decline that cannot be averted and will not achieve fair wealth distribution; it is not resilient.

May 72026

In the long term China will return to its cultural norm of isolationism and will not matter in the great scheme of geopolitics.

Apr 92026

China is a vassal construct of the system and a mirage; it will come under severe strain if the global economy collapses.

More from this video

Europe

Germany will one day become a great empire ruling at least Europe, because it lost both world wars.

'One day' Germany will rule Europe has no timeframe and rests on a speculative theory, so it can't be tested.

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge Game Theory #5: The World Game @ 45:24

Unresolvable

Said Jan 20, 2026no deadline

Other

Japan will come to dominate East Asia as a great empire.

Japan does not dominate East Asia as of 2026-10-15; China is still the largest regional power. The claim is open-ended.

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge Game Theory #5: The World Game @ 45:52

Open

Said Jan 20, 2026no deadline

Israel

Israel will emerge as one of three great empires of the future (with Germany and Japan).

Open-ended long-range forecast. As of Oct 2026, none of Israel, Germany or Japan has emerged as an 'empire'.

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge Game Theory #5: The World Game @ 46:43

Open

Said Jan 20, 2026no deadline

US politics

The United States is finished as a leading power.

'The Americans are done' has no measurable criterion or timeframe.

The American empire and its world order are ending Game Theory #5: The World Game @ 46:54

Unresolvable

Said Jan 20, 2026no deadline

China & Taiwan

China is finished as a rising power (hedged: 'this is all just a theory').

'Done' is not defined, and he hedged it himself as 'just a theory'. China remains a major power, hosting and making state visits with the US in 2026.

China is finished as a rising power Game Theory #5: The World Game

Unresolvable

Said Jan 20, 2026no deadline