Window runs to 2028. So far it fits: the war continues and Russia has not attacked NATO states. However, Putin has taken part in US-brokered talks and short ceasefires (May 2026, a disputed energy ceasefire in October 2026), but kept maximalist demands.
Restated in 5 videos as The Ukraine war will drag on and escalate
As of Oct 2026 there is no civil war in the US; unrest has been limited to protests and localized clashes (e.g., LA anti-ICE unrest June 2025). No timeframe was given, so it could still happen.
The wider war did come, but it was started by the US and Israel (June 2025, then 28 Feb 2026), not by Iran. Russia gave only indirect help such as intelligence, drone parts and air-defence pledges, with no nuclear umbrella.
The deadline is 2028. In 2026 North Korea kept up its routine missile tests (April SRBMs, July cruise missile, August launches). There has been no major escalation against South Korea or Japan, and the US shortened its August drills to favor diplomacy. US attention has been on Iran, not East Asia.
BRICS created a partner-country tier at Kazan (Oct 2024) and admitted Indonesia as a full member in Jan 2025, and Putin-Xi ties deepened further (Xi in Moscow in May 2025, Putin in China in Sept 2025). Both happened well inside the 3-4 year window.
No BRICS currency or formal alternative trading system has been announced. Kazan 2024 only endorsed a voluntary cross-border payments initiative, and the Sept 2026 New Delhi Declaration discussed local-currency settlement and CBDC linking without launching anything; India opposes a common currency. The deadline is 2028-06-05.
The condition hasn't happened: Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not left the dollar/petrodollar system, and the US debt pile has not 'crashed down'. Open-ended conditional.
Campus Gaza protests fell sharply in fall 2024: Crowd Counting Consortium data show protest actions down about 64% from spring (3,220 to 1,151) and arrests down steeply, as universities banned encampments.
Germany's economy stagnated (slight contractions in 2023-2024, near-zero growth in 2025) but did not collapse in the near term.