Home/US politics
US politicsCame true

Trump's disregard for constitutional norms and conventions will cause problems for the American system of checks and balances in the next few years.

Said May 22, 2025 in Civilization #52: Empire of Democracy @ 36:16

Timeline Resolved 9 months after he said it, within his own window

Timeframe next few yearsWindow 3.0 years

Verdict Came true

Already underway when stated: court battles over Trump's executive actions were ongoing in May 2025. Later clashes included the Supreme Court blocking the Illinois National Guard deployment (Dec 2025) and striking down his IEEPA tariffs as beyond his powers (Feb 20, 2026), plus a 2026 Iran war launched without congressional authorization. This described something already underway, so it isn't counted in the hit rate.

minnlawyer.comking.senate.gov

What he said

But if you are someone like Donald Trump who doesn't accept these norms and values, it can be a problem. Of course. Good. So let's see what happens over the next few years.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

More from this video

Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

About · Method · Contact · Videos · Data

How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.