'Heading into a world at war' to distract populations is too vague and rests on motives that cannot be tested. A major US-Israel war with Iran did begin in Feb 2026.
The window runs to 2035. There are some early signs of executive aggrandizement (domestic Guard deployments, clashes with courts), but there has been no clear authoritarian transition, and US midterms are proceeding in Nov 2026.
There is no Western economic collapse as of Oct 2026: the IMF projects 2.3% US and 1.1% eurozone growth for 2026. The window runs to 2035.
The window runs to 2035. There is no civil war in Western countries as of Oct 2026. The US did start a foreign war with Iran in Feb 2026, but it cannot be linked to the mechanism he described.
This is a broad bundle of outcomes over 5-20 years. Of the 'stupid foreign wars,' the 2026 Iran war arguably fits, but there has been no economic collapse or civil conflict as of Oct 2026.
By the end of 2025, the US had built up naval forces and struck alleged drug boats near Venezuela (from Sept 2025), but troops did not enter Venezuela until the Jan 3, 2026 raid that captured Maduro, just after the deadline. No US troops were sent into Mexico (only planning was reported).
The window runs to 2035. Early signs point toward strain: the 2025 Social Security Trustees project OASI trust fund depletion around 2033, which would force benefit cuts or new financing.
A general theory of how collapse happens, not a dated prediction.