Recurring call · China & Taiwan

China will not invade Taiwan

He consistently predicts China will not attack Taiwan, and from 2026 forecasts peaceful unification under a KMT president.

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Jun 2025 → Jul 2026

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

2026202720282026today

Jul 182026

China will not take military action against Taiwan; doing so would be suicidal for the Communist Party.

Jul 172026

China will almost certainly not invade Taiwan; Taiwan and China will instead unify peacefully, and Japan would intervene in any war over Taiwan.

Jul 172026

The Kuomintang's charismatic leader will probably become Taiwan's next president and pursue peaceful reunification with China.

Jul 112026

China will not invade Taiwan militarily.

Jun 132026

KMT chair Cheng Li-wun will eventually become president of Taiwan.

⋯ 12 months earlier

Jun 122025

China will not invade Taiwan if the US attacks Iran, because China is economically dependent on the American economy.