Recurring call · China & Taiwan

The US will choke off China's sea lanes

He predicts the US will control choke points such as Malacca and Hormuz to embargo China's trade and energy, hurting its export economy.

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Dec 2025 → Aug 2026

first and latest time

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

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Every time he said it

Aug 162026

OpenDeadline Aug 2036

China will be embargoed, withdraw from the global financial system, and suffer famine in the countryside.

Aug 12026

OpenDeadline Aug 2028

Flare-up between Indonesia and Malaysia with Indonesia asserting control over the Strait of Malacca, backed by the US and Israel.

⋯ 3 months earlier

Apr 282026

Unresolvable

The US will use the color revolution playbook against countries that oppose it, and China's export-dependent economy could face collapse and protests if cut off.

Apr 212026

OpenDeadline Apr 2036

America will move to close off the Strait of Malacca to Chinese trade, so China will have no choice but to buy energy from the US in dollars for the next ~10 years.

Apr 72026

Partly

America will shift to controlling sea lanes and choke points (Panama, Greenland/Arctic, Hormuz, Malacca) via blockades, and Trump will exert authority over Greenland.

⋯ 4 months earlier

Dec 182025

Open

The US will embargo/blockade China's sea access to resources, severely hurting China's economy; Japan, China and India will also have conflicts.