Society & culture
South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.
Deadline ~2075; South Korea's fertility remains among the world's lowest, but the state persists.
Open
Closes Dec 2075in 17973 days
IsraelOpen
Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.
Said Jan 6, 2026 in Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 37:45
Timeline Closes in 49.2 years
Timeframe next 50 yearsWindow 50.0 yearsSaid again 12×
Verdict Open
This is a 50-year forecast and cannot be judged in 2026. Israel's economy is strong (Bank of Israel forecasts 5.2% growth for 2026, and FDI was a record in 2025), but it is not a dominant world power.
What he said
a country that is most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years is this country. Israel.
Read it in the transcript, in context →He keeps saying this
Restated in 11 videos as A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge
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More from this video
Society & culture
South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he says he'd be surprised otherwise); its working population halves by 2060.
Deadline 2040; no collapse as of Oct 2026.
Open
Closes Dec 2040in 5190 days
China & Taiwan
China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.
This is a projection for 2100 and cannot be judged now. China's population is falling, but the size of the decline is unknown.
Open
Closes Dec 2100in 27104 days
Society & culture
It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over the next 50 years because of collapsing fertility and materialism.
'Very hard to survive' has no defined outcome.
Unresolvable
Said Jan 6, 2026deadline Dec 2075