US politics
Trump will get a third term.
Deadline Jan 2029. Signs point against it: Trump said in Aug 2026 'the law is very strong', and AP reports he increasingly talks about leaving office in 2029.
Open
Closes Jan 2029in 827 days
US politicsOpen
An American military draft is coming, and also in Canada, Australia and Europe.
Said May 28, 2026 in Game Theory #29: Final Examination @ 32:44
Timeline No deadline given
Timeframe unspecifiedSaid again 10×
Verdict Open
No US draft as of Oct 2026, only automatic Selective Service registration due by Dec 2026. Conscription in Canada, Australia or Europe was not verified in this check, as the search budget ran out.
What he said
I do believe the draft is coming. But not only that, but I believe that the draft is coming to many countries including Canada, Australia, Europe.
Read it in the transcript, in context →He keeps saying this
Restated in 11 videos as A national military draft is coming
More from this video
US politics
A second American civil war will happen, driven partly by resistance to the AI surveillance state, and nothing can stop it.
No civil war or sustained armed conflict between factions has occurred as of Oct 2026; political violence continues at the level of isolated attacks (e.g., the Apr 25, 2026 WHCA dinner shooting / attempted assassination of Trump).
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Economy & markets
The US government will eventually default on its debt, collapsing the dollar Ponzi scheme; the global reserve currency will become a basket of currencies, over many years or decades.
As of 2026-10-15 the US has not defaulted and the dollar remains the main reserve currency. His own timeframe is many years to decades.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Economy & markets
The US will suffer economic collapse regardless of the US forcing others to buy its oil.
There has been no US economic collapse as of 2026-10-15: the S&P 500 hit a record on 2026-10-06, Q2 data was solid and August CPI was 3.4%. The claim is open-ended.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Economy & markets
The gold price will go down in a world of instability and population decline because of lower demand.
Gold did fall after the video, from about $4,400-4,510 in late May/early June 2026 to about $4,190 by 2026-10-12, but the drop is modest. The slide from the January 2026 peak (~$5,500) began before he spoke, and there is no evidence it was caused by population decline or lower demand.
Partly
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Society & culture
New Zealand, Australia and Canada will see populations replaced by immigrants, leading to a lot of civil conflict, but New Zealand will not join wars.
Open-ended; no significant civil conflict in New Zealand, Australia or Canada attributable to immigration as of Oct 2026.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
China & Taiwan
China is in decline that cannot be averted and will not achieve fair wealth distribution; it is not resilient.
'Decline that cannot be averted' and 'not resilient' have no metric or timeframe.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Other
Japan will once again prove resilient and rebuild itself if disaster comes, outlasting China.
A conditional, open-ended statement about how Japan would recover from some future disaster. It has no checkable outcome.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Iran & Middle East
If a US-Iran war reaches ground invasion by millions of US troops, it will destroy both the US and Iran, leaving Israel the only one standing.
This is a conditional claim, and the condition (a ground invasion by millions of US troops) has not happened. Only about 9,000 additional troops began deploying to the region in October 2026.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Russia & Ukraine
Putin will live another 20 years; after his death a succession crisis will trigger 10-20 years of Russian military expansion followed by exhaustion and decay.
Window runs to 2046. Putin is alive as of October 2026.
Open
Closes May 2046in 7164 days
Russia & Ukraine
Russia will move to a total war economy focused on conquering Ukraine, the Baltic states and Central Asia.
Russia keeps fighting in Ukraine but has not attacked the Baltic states or Central Asia, and no 'total war' mobilization has been reported as of October 2026.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Technology & AI
Humans will never get to Mars or mine asteroids, and may not get to the moon, because society will collapse quickly.
No Mars landing or asteroid mining has happened, and these were never expected by Oct 2026. Artemis II did fly four astronauts around the Moon on 2026-04-06/07, before this video; a landing has not yet occurred.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Other
India's geopolitical outlook is not optimistic given its population, chaotic politics and resource constraints.
'Not that optimistic' is a vague outlook with no measurable outcome or timeframe.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Europe
Conflict between Russia and Europe will converge on the Balkans as a proxy war.
No Russia-Europe proxy war in the Balkans has been reported as of October 2026.
Open
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
War & WWIII
The people in charge are playing a crazy game that will probably lead to the end of the world.
'Probably lead to the end of the world' has no timeframe or measurable criterion.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Society & culture
Most people, especially older ones and wealthy baby boomers, will fail to adapt to the multipolar world, will violently resist change, and many will die.
'Most people are going to die' from failing to adapt to a multipolar world is too vague and metaphysical to verify.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
US politics
The American empire will decline and fall as a natural cycle; resisting only makes the fall quicker and more painful.
A cyclical-history claim with no timeframe or measurable test.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
China & Taiwan
A US-China trade war could end up collapsing both nations.
This is a hedged possibility ('it's possible') with no timeframe. Neither country's economy has collapsed as of Oct 2026.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline
Technology & AI
If a world war broke out, there would be conflict in East Asia between Japan and China; AI is a hallucination and will not lead to a new future.
A conditional (if a world war broke out) plus a value judgement that AI is 'hocus pocus'; neither is checkable.
Unresolvable
Said May 28, 2026no deadline