Catholic fanatics may try to initiate a second American civil war to capture the American state, and the Catholic Church stands a good chance of achieving its eschatology.
Nothing of the sort happened from August to November 2025: no water-infrastructure sabotage campaign, no Hormuz closure, no ground invasion. Hormuz was blocked only in the war that began 28 Feb 2026, and no invasion has followed.
Iran did not close Hormuz by November 2025. It blocked the strait only after the US-Israeli attack of 28 Feb 2026, and even then no US ground invasion followed; the US answered with a naval blockade in April 2026.
The window runs to 2035. The US fought an air/sea war with Iran from Feb 28, 2026 but has not launched a ground invasion. There is no retreat to the Western Hemisphere and no civil war.
As of 2026-10-15 the Al-Aqsa Mosque and Dome of the Rock stand intact; Temple Mount tensions continue (e.g. large Jewish ascents on Tisha B'Av 2026) but there is no move to demolish them or build a Third Temple. The deadline is 2035.
Window to 2035. The 2026 US-Israel war with Iran caused regional upheaval, but no wave of revolutions with mass Mahdist movements, and no Putin-led Orthodox-Islamic reconciliation, has been established.
The window runs to 2035. A major Middle East war did break out in Feb 2026, but the US is a main belligerent, which contradicts 'neither America nor China involved'. The eschatological parts cannot be checked.
There is no timeframe or measurable threshold for 'catastrophe' or 'no bright future'. China's growth slowed (about 4.8% in Q3 2025, with a property slump) but there has been no collapse.