If the IRGC killed Raisi, Iran will escalate: faster nuclear program, more violent proxies, shipping disruption and a terror campaign.

Said May 24, 2024 in Geo-Strategy #7: Who Killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi? @ 45:36

Timeline Resolved 13 months after he said it, within his own window

Timeframe after June 2024 electionWindow 13 monthsSaid again 12×

Verdict Partly

The premise (that the IRGC killed Raisi) was never shown; Iran's investigation blamed weather and technical failure. Some escalation did follow: Iran's missile strike on Israel on 1 Oct 2024, faster growth of its 60%-enriched uranium stockpile, and continued Houthi attacks on shipping. But Hezbollah and other proxies were badly weakened in 2024, and no global terror campaign took place.

en.wikipedia.org

What he said

should see escalation um the acceleration of the nuclear program um proxies become much more violent uh shipping is is um Disturbed and you have a terror campaign uh throughout the world

Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 10 videos as The Iran war will escalate to energy and civilian targets

Jul 182026

Open

Iran will target UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain energy facilities rather than desalination plants or Israel.

Jun 132026

Came trueDeadline Dec 2026

The US and Israel will increasingly target Iranian civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges, railways, water reservoirs).

⋯ 46 days earlier

Apr 282026

PartlyDeadline Aug 2026

Over the next few months America will shift to a 21st-century strategy against Iran: economic strangulation, stoking ethnic insurgency, and destroying civilian infrastructure (dams, power plants, roads, rail).

Apr 212026

Partly

If the ceasefire fails, round two will see the US target Iranian civilian infrastructure (bridges, universities, reservoirs, power and desalination plants) and Iran will take a third of world energy supply offline, causing an economic depression.

Apr 72026

Didn't happenDeadline Apr 2026

If the US destroys Iranian power plants, bridges and universities, Iran will go to total war and strike GCC oil fields, desalination plants and universities, removing 20% of world energy supply and de-industrializing the world with global famine.

Mar 242026

Open

Iran could cut undersea internet cables, disrupting internet for 20-30% of the world (Africa, India, Middle East, parts of Europe).

If the IRGC killed Raisi, Iran will escalate: faster nuclear program, more violent proxies, shipping disruption and a terror campaign.

Timeline Resolved 13 months after he said it, within his own window

Verdict Partly

What he said

He keeps saying this

More from this video

Khamenei will die within five years and Raisi would have become the next Ayatollah.

If the IRGC killed Raisi, VP Mohammad Mokhber will become president in the late-June 2024 election.

The US will lose a war with Iran, and the war will be brutal for Iran, with tens of millions of Iranians dying.