Recurring call · Iran & Middle East

The Iran war will escalate to energy and civilian targets

He predicts Iran will close Hormuz and strike Gulf energy facilities, while the US and Israel will target Iranian water, power and transport infrastructure.

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May 2024 → Jul 2026

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Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

2025202620252026today

Every time he said it

Jul 182026

Open

Iran will target UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain energy facilities rather than desalination plants or Israel.

Jun 132026

Came trueDeadline Dec 2026

The US and Israel will increasingly target Iranian civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges, railways, water reservoirs).

⋯ 46 days earlier

Apr 282026

PartlyDeadline Aug 2026

Over the next few months America will shift to a 21st-century strategy against Iran: economic strangulation, stoking ethnic insurgency, and destroying civilian infrastructure (dams, power plants, roads, rail).

Apr 212026

Partly

If the ceasefire fails, round two will see the US target Iranian civilian infrastructure (bridges, universities, reservoirs, power and desalination plants) and Iran will take a third of world energy supply offline, causing an economic depression.

Apr 72026

Didn't happenDeadline Apr 2026

If the US destroys Iranian power plants, bridges and universities, Iran will go to total war and strike GCC oil fields, desalination plants and universities, removing 20% of world energy supply and de-industrializing the world with global famine.

Mar 242026

Open

Iran could cut undersea internet cables, disrupting internet for 20-30% of the world (Africa, India, Middle East, parts of Europe).

Mar 192026

Partly

Iran will activate the Houthis to close a second critical maritime choke point, isolating the GCC and cutting the world off from cheap energy.

Mar 192026

Partly

US and Israeli attacks on Iran will escalate to civilian critical infrastructure including water.

Mar 32026

Came trueDeadline Jun 2026

Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz to strangle the global economy.

Mar 32026

PartlyDeadline Jun 2026

Attacks will extend to Iranian water supply, dams, reservoirs and power plants.

Mar 32026

Open

The US and Israel aim to fracture Iran into ethnic enclaves fighting over water.

⋯ 8 months earlier

Jun 182025

Partly

Iran could cut Saudi desalination plants and oil fields and close the Strait of Hormuz via proxies, causing oil price spikes and inflation in the US that Americans will not sustain.

⋯ 13 months earlier

May 242024

PartlyDeadline Jun 2025

If the IRGC killed Raisi, Iran will escalate: faster nuclear program, more violent proxies, shipping disruption and a terror campaign.