Khamenei did die within five years: he was killed in a US-Israeli strike on 28 Feb 2026. The Raisi half could not happen because Raisi died in May 2024; Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on 8 March 2026.
Mokhber did not run. Masoud Pezeshkian won the 5 July 2024 runoff and became president.
The premise (that the IRGC killed Raisi) was never shown; Iran's investigation blamed weather and technical failure. Some escalation did follow: Iran's missile strike on Israel on 1 Oct 2024, faster growth of its 60%-enriched uranium stockpile, and continued Houthi attacks on shipping. But Hezbollah and other proxies were badly weakened in 2024, and no global terror campaign took place.
The US-Israel war on Iran began 28 Feb 2026, went through a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire (8 Apr) and the Islamabad Memorandum (17 Jun), collapsed 8 Jul, and is still unresolved in Oct 2026, with indirect talks via Qatar. Iranian deaths so far are roughly 3,500 to 10,000 (Iranian government, HRANA, OCHA and US/Israeli figures), nowhere near tens of millions. Neither side has lost yet.