50-year horizon (2076). South Korea's TFR actually ticked up to 0.80 in 2025 (four-year high), though population decline projections remain severe.
Restated in 8 videos as Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia
Window runs to 2029. No German troops are in Ukraine as of October 2026. Germany's service law and rearmament continue.
Depends on a counterfactual ('if there were fair elections') and has no timeframe.
No timeframe. There is no Germany-Russia war of attrition and no pro-Russian right-wing government in Germany as of October 2026.
No timeframe. The war is ongoing and unresolved as of October 2026.
Window runs to 2046. Too early to judge.
North Korea raised tensions in Sept 2026: two ballistic missile tests in about a week (Sept 20), and Kim Yo Jong threatened 'more offensive' responses to US-led drills. This is routine provocation, not major destabilization. Deadline 2028.
This is a long-term claim. So far the signs point against it: Xi and Putin reaffirmed ties in Beijing in May 2026 and at the SCO summit on Aug 31, 2026, and energy trade is rising.
Ukraine and Iran are currently the two main active wars, and the July 2026 Ukrainian Caspian strikes began linking them. Whether a 'World War III' exists to have fronts is still unresolved.
No US default or missed Treasury payment has occurred as of 2026-10-15; the S&P 500 set a record close above 7,800 on 2026-10-06. Foreign Treasury demand has not stopped, though there were reports of tepid auctions amid Iran tensions in May 2026; the claim is open-ended.
Conditional on the dollar's reserve status being forcibly destroyed, which has not happened as of Oct 2026.
This is conditional on an American collapse, which hasn't happened.