Recurring call · Society & culture

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia

He predicts collapsing birth rates will end South Korea, and eventually Japan and China, as functioning nation-states within decades, with North Korea outlasting South Korea.

videos

separate calls

Open

0 resolved so far

Oct 2024 → Jul 2026

first and latest time

Times said15Resolved0Scorecard

Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048204920502051205220532054205520562057205820592060206120622063206420652066206720682069207020712072207320742075207620772078207920802081208220832084208520862087208820892090209120922093209420952096209720982099210020252026today

Every time he said it

Jul 202026

OpenDeadline Jul 2031

China's fertility rate will fall below South Korea's within five years.

Jul 202026

Unresolvable

East Asia is heading toward collapse; the 'East Asian century' will end.

Jul 172026

OpenDeadline Jul 2036

Over the next 10 years Japan will try to solve its demographic crisis by massively attracting immigrants.

Jul 172026

OpenDeadline Jul 2076

If Japan does not solve its demographic crisis this decade, it will cease to exist as a nation-state within 50 years.

Jun 232026

Unresolvable

Immigration will not solve the population decline of developed societies in the long run; it is only a short-term remedy while underlying decline continues.

Jun 132026

Open

War will cause rapid population decline in East Asia and governments will then encourage births.

May 212026

OpenDeadline May 2076

South Korea will lose 80% of its population in 50 years and eventually reach zero if trends continue, while North Korea outlasts it and could extort South Korea.

⋯ 4 months earlier

Jan 62026

OpenDeadline Dec 2075

South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.

Jan 62026

OpenDeadline Dec 2040

South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he says he'd be surprised otherwise); its working population halves by 2060.

Jan 62026

OpenDeadline Dec 2100

China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.

Jan 62026

UnresolvableDeadline Dec 2075

It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over the next 50 years because of collapsing fertility and materialism.

⋯ 7 months earlier

May 292025

Unresolvable

North Korea has a better future than South Korea (e.g., higher fertility and social cohesion).

⋯ 7 months earlier

Oct 242024

OpenDeadline Oct 2044

North Korea may overtake South Korea within about 20 years because its population is hungry, united and obedient while South Korea suffers inequality and a collapsing birth rate.

Oct 242024

Open

North Korea will extract money from South Korea simply by threatening to attack it, getting richer and stronger militarily while South Korea gets poorer.

Oct 242024

Open

North Korea, strengthened by money from arms deals and combat experience in Russia's war in Ukraine, could eventually defeat or conquer South Korea.