Civilization #31: The Oceanic Currents of History

Okay, good morning. So, welcome to the first class of the second semester. This semester we are going to build on what we've learned the first semester to better understand human history and to better understand what's happening in the world today. And also to be able to predict the, okay? So, if you have been following current events, and I hope you have, there are now three major conflicts in the world. The first and most devastating is the war in where Russia and Ukraine have been for about 3 years now, and a lot of people have died.

There's controversy over the exact, it's possible that over a million soldiers have died in this war so far. And even though President Donald Trump of the United shown signs that he wants to end the, we don't really know when the war will end. Okay? So, this war in Ukraine, it is still happening, and it's affecting everything and everyone. Obviously it brings a lot of instability and uncertainty in the world, but it's also driving up prices, and it's making things inconvenient. So, when you fly to the United States, you'll discover that it takes you longer to fly to the United States because you can't fly through Russia.

You have to fly around Russia, okay? So, that's the first major conflict. The second conflict, which is not as deadly but which will probably prove to be even more dangerous, is the war in the Middle East, the conflict in the Middle East. As you know, for the past couple years Israel has been in conflict with most of its neighbors. It's launched an expedition into the Gaza Strip and Hamas for what Hamas did on October 7th. It's launched a war against Lebanon. It's involved in Syria.

The signs tell us that this conflict will spread. Trump has come in and promised a resolution to the conflict. But as I will show you this semester, there are historical structural forces that make this conflict possibly the beginning of World War III. This conflict will only increase. The great fear right now is Israel attacks Iran and drives the United States into war with Iraq. And this will mark the beginning of World War III. And this could possibly lead to the end of the world as we know it today. If the United States attacks Iran, both Russia and China must intervene in some capacity.

Does that make sense to you guys? Iran right now, it's the linchpin of the global economy. The first reason is there's a lot of oil in Iran, in the Middle East. And China, South Korea and Japan get most of its oil from the Middle East, right? So, if the oil supply is cut off, then the Chinese economy, the South Korean economy, the Japanese economy, basically all of East faces economic collapse and catastrophe.

But second, if you look at a map, Iran is really the center of the world. Meaning most of the world's trade goes through that area, especially something called the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has a capacity to cut off all trade in the Strait of Hormuz, and that would be a catastrophe for the global economy. And if that were to happen, the Western powers would need to get involved in order to free up the Strait of Hormuz. And then Russia, India, China, who knows? Okay, but a lot of people would have to get involved in order to protect their economic interests.

All right? So, I will go into this mess in the semester. We'll talk a lot about what's driving conflict in the Middle East. There are these geopolitical factors as I discussed, but there are also these religious factors that we looked into a bit last semester, but I will explain more this semester.

And then the third and final conflict is basically the United States against the world. What I mean by that is that ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991, we have been living in something called a unipolar moment. Meaning there's only one hegemon, one superpower. And as such, the United States has been able to policy, especially economic policy, around the world. The United States controls all trade. We have to use the US dollar in order to trade. The United States also uses its military to protect shipping lanes.

And this is a criticism called the Pax Americana, the American peace. And this of course has brought tremendous prosperity to the world. Okay, China would not have grown as fast as China did without the Pax Americana. It is American ships, American warships, that allowed Chinese ships to sail safely around the world to deliver goods around the world.

But this unipolar moment has also created a lot of conflict. The main conflict being the United States can invade any country for no reason. In 2003 it invaded Iraq for no reason. It destroyed Libya for no reason.

It almost destroyed Syria for no reason. Okay? So, the number of countries the United States has gone and destroyed are just staggering. And that's why Russia under Putin, because it felt bullied, it felt disrespected, that's why Russia is now in conflict with the United States. And strangely enough, this conflict has caused the United States to go into conflict with the rest of the world, okay? So, as you may know, the United States right now under Trump has declared or is about to launch trade wars against a lot of countries.

Quite possibly, very quickly, that's the European Union. And the United States is already at economic war with Russia and China. Okay? So, we will go into this mess. We will also discuss this semester why this is happening. Again, my argument to you is that if you know enough history, if you study the historical structural forces that drive global conflict, then you'll understand what's going on. And you'll also be able to predict what will happen.

Does that make sense? What I want to talk about today is a new model of historical analysis. How can we understand the movement of history? Why do people do what they do? Why do nations go to war? Why do nations have peace? Okay? So, I'm looking at grand history. I'm looking at the large structural movement of history.

In the past, there have been two main models for understanding historical, okay? So, the first is the idea of a cycle or a circle. And this makes sense, right? Because this mirrors what we experience in life. We are born, but then we die. And then other people are born, and then they die. Okay? So, it's a cycle. You look at the seasons. There's winter, but that gives rise to spring, which then gives rise to summer, then the fall, then winter again. It's a cycle. Okay? So, throughout most of human, most people have understood the movement of the world as a cycle.

This is certainly true in Chinese history. Dynasties rise because they have the mandate of heaven. Heaven favors them. And they do justice when they first arise, but over time, for a variety of reasons, because of corruption, because there's a bad emperor, they lose the mandate of heaven, which leads to a rebellion, which then creates a new dynasty. So, Chinese history is almost a continuous cycle of dynastic rise and decline. Okay?

Now, in the Western context, there's also a cycle. There are many different cycles, but let me explain one cycle that we've noticed in the Greek and Roman world.

The cycle is this. There are three major factions in a society. There is the people. There is the nobility. And then there is the king or a great person. Okay? And each of these factions has a particular strength. The people, their strength comes from their numbers.

They have mass. The nobility is only a minority of people, but they have authority. They're respected. Because they know more, they are better at war than ordinary people, but they have authority, okay? People respect them. And the king has the army.

So, these are the three major forces or factions in a society. And these three factions are always in, and what happens is a changing alliance, the two of the three get together to beat one.

And then this forces a new alliance, right? So, what happens is this. You first have something called an oligarchy, where the nobility is in charge, and everyone has to do what they command. Okay? But over time, this oligarchy becomes corrupt. And the way they become corrupt is by exploiting the people through debt. All right? So, in a nobility, the nobles own the land, you have to work the land, but you get a share. And that's fine. But sometimes the weather is bad. So, you can't work the land, you can't pay me the rent.

So, I give you a loan. And over time, this loan becomes a debt. And at a certain point, you can't pay off the debt. So, what happens? You become a slave. And your children become my slaves as well. Okay? So, this creates a lot of conflict in society. How is this conflict resolved? Because one of the nobility wants to be king. And he sees an opportunity in the civil conflict between the people and the nobility.

So, he tells the people, "If you make me king, I will clear your debts." And this creates a monarchy. And the first king is usually a good king because he had to work hard to obtain his position.

People love him for the fact that he cleared away their debts. This is what we call a jubilee, by the way. The word is jubilee. And this happens a lot in human history. But the problem is the king has a son who's not so good. And then the son has a son who's awful. And so, the nobility get angry, the people get angry, and they rebel. And they create a democracy.

But then in the democracy, what happens in a democracy is it's the best speakers, the wealthiest people, who control the votes. And so, they get together. And what do they do? They create an oligarchy. Okay? Do you see how the cycle works? And this cycle goes on and on and on. Three factions always in conflict with each other. And the way they form their alliances creates a certain form of government, okay? When the nobility's in charge, it's an oligarchy.

But then a king and the people work together or throw in a creative monarchy. And then the king becomes corrupt, and so the nobility and the people work together to create a democracy.

And you can see the cycle happening today in the United States as well, right? Because who is Trump? Trump is a king. Does that make sense to you guys? What is Trump saying? Trump is saying to the people, "The elite are corrupt. The elite are stealing from you. The elite are lying to you. Vote for me, and I will destroy the elite, and I will give you more economic opportunities." Okay? Do you understand? So, this is a really important idea. Trump is not going to be president for 4 years.

His ambition is to be, okay? And we see this cycle throughout human history. So, that's the idea of a cycle. All right? We also have another model of human historical development, which is a line, okay? A line. And the idea of progress towards truth.

Okay? So, that's the other competing model. There are two main models. There's a cycle, and then there's a line. And the idea of a line is human society does not go on and on in a useless cycle. It is moving towards a truth. It is moving towards a good end.

Okay? So, this idea has been around for a very long time. Remember in the Bible, when King David first sponsored the writing of the Bible, the Bible was a line where Yahweh, the God, was looking for a friend. He was looking for someone who he could trust to rule his kingdom of. And he first tried Adam and Eve and they disobeyed him. Then he tried Noah, then he tried Abraham, and then he tried Moses, and then he found his true friend who is David, okay? So, the truth is David in the Hebrew Bible.

Then you have the Romans. Okay? Remember the Romans, Virgil wrote something called the Aeneid. And in the Aeneid, Troy was destroyed so that Rome could be founded. And when Rome was founded, Rome will have to fight a series of wars that will eventually lead to the rise of Augustus. And this will create something called the Pax Romana. And this is the end of history. This is where all movement ends. Because once you achieve the Pax Romana there will be no more war. Right? So, this idea of a line. Obviously, this is not true.

But back then when they came up with this history, they thought it was true. And if you know a little bit about current history, then you'll know about a man named Francis Fukuyama, who works for the government. And he wrote something called The End of, which is an essay arguing that when the Soviet Union fell, it showed the end of history. Before, history was a battle of ideas.

And now with the fall of the Soviet Union, we now know that Western liberal consumer democracy is the best system in the world. We no longer have to argue about this. Everyone should try to be a liberal consumer democracy, including China. And if everyone became a consumer liberal democracy, there would be no more war. We wouldn't want to fight because we're too busy spending money.

And the best way to make money is through trade, not war. Okay? We now also know this is not true. All right? But the main proponents of the line theory of history, progress of history, are actually Christians. Okay? Christians. Why?

They believe that Jesus marks a turning point in history. And when Jesus came, it marked a progress towards truth. What is truth? Truth is the second coming of Jesus.

Which will mark the end of the world. When Jesus returns, he will usher in a millennium, a thousand years of peace, when he will be king. We will all have to obey him. Okay? What I will show you in the future, when we discuss the Crusades, is that this idea, okay, it sounds like a simple idea, but this idea is what's driving a lot of conflict in the Middle East. Believe it or not, there are millions of Christians. They're called Christian Zionists, by the way, who want war in the Middle East because if there's war in the Middle East and the world is about to end, Jesus has to return from heaven to save. You think this is silly.

You think this is crazy. What I'm telling you right now, this idea, which millions of people around the world believe in, is one of the main causes of the war in the Middle East. And guys, crazy ideas make crazy events. All right? So, there are people who literally believe that we can save the world by ending it.

It's only the threat of nuclear holocaust. It's only the threat of the end of Israel that will force Jesus to return, issuing the second coming. All right? Now, what's important for us to understand is that these are the two basic frameworks of history.

But there are variations to these two basic models, okay? So, for example, Hegel. We'll discuss Friedrich Hegel later on this semester. He's really important. But he has this idea called the dialectic.

The dialectic just means a conflict, a conversation. So, what he believes is that history is driven by ideas that are in conflict with each other. Okay? Wherever there's an idea, for example, let's just say you have... Then what will happen is a new idea will arrive to challenge the existing idea, what we'll call communism, okay? And then what will happen is these two ideas will merge together and they will draw on the best parts of each other and we can call this socialism.

All right? So, it's a line, okay? But it's almost like this, right? There's an idea. Something comes in conflict and this leads to a new idea, which then leads to a new idea, okay? But he still believes that we are progressing towards the truth through this conflict.

So, we'll discuss Hegel and his theory of the dialectic later on in the semester. And the idea of the dialectic will lead to, of course, Marxism. Okay? So, Marx is drawing a lot on Hegel and another philosopher named Immanuel Kant for his theory of... But we'll do that later on in the... All right? So, these are the two main models of historical development. You have the cycle, the circle, or you have the line. You either believe that things move in continuous motion or they're moving towards an end.

Right? Does that make sense? Any questions about these two models so far? What you will learn this semester is a new model of historical development. Okay? It's a much more complicated model than these two models, but I think it is much more useful in helping us predict the causes of historical development.

I want to argue why these two models don't really work. And it has to do with the fact that history as an academic discipline is just not very good. It's just not. What I mean by that is you look at the world today, there's this Trump presidency, there's this conflict in the Ukraine, there's the Middle East conflict, and you would expect historians to come out and say, "Oh, this has happened before, and we can then predict what will happen, and so this is what's going to happen," okay? But guess what, guys?

They're not very good at predicting things. They're just not. History is notorious for not being able to tell us much about the future. And they'll surely say, "Well, it's because we look at the past." And for me, this is frustrating because if the history is any good, if the history is accurate, then it should help us predict the future, or at least better understand the present, okay? So, the idea of truth, what is truth? Well, truth does two things. First, it... Why did this happen?

Why did World War II start? And the answer we have today is like, "Hitler was a bad guy. He was evil." Okay, that doesn't explain much for us. And then it also has to predict. If it's truthful, then it predicts. And history doesn't do that.

I want to fix this problem by introducing a new model of history, which is a lot more complicated, okay? I'll be honest with you, it's a lot more complicated. But I think for our purposes, it's more useful at explaining why things happen the way they do. And it helps us also predict what will happen. Okay? And this model is what I call the oceanic currents of history. Imagine the world as a huge ocean. And within each ocean, there's an... which has currents. And then these currents come into conflict with each other, which leads to a new development.

Okay? So, think about hurricanes. And the thing that's really important about this model that I'm proposing is there's no moral judgment in it. Okay? I mean, obviously in a line, the end where we're going is good and where we're at now is bad. Okay? But what I'm saying is this moral judgment, saying this is good, this is bad, it's not helpful. It doesn't really tell us anything. All right? I'm much more interested in explaining why this happened, how this happened, and where this is going. Okay. So, let's look at the world to understand this theory.

What I will show you is the world is divided into cultural ecosystems. Okay? Cultural ecosystems. This is a really important idea that you need to know for the rest of the... What I will argue is that culture is the... what's meta-reality? Meta-reality is the understanding of the world from which all other understandings derive. So, what I'm saying is that culture is the most important part of who you are. Much more important than your gender, much more important than your race, much more important than your economic demographic, okay?

You're rich or poor. Okay? So, to understand why culture is so important, I will do a thought experiment. Okay? A thought experiment. The thought experiment is this. Let's take a random guy from China 2,000 years ago, okay? Just a random guy. We'll take him off the streets and we'll put him into China today. All right?

In 2,000 years, China has changed a lot, right? We now have the internet. We have cell phones. We have skyscrapers. We have cars. We have roads, okay? So, China has changed a lot in 2,000 years.

How long would it take him to adapt to the new China? And I would say at most 5 to 10 years. Because even though on the surface, China has changed a lot, deep down inside, China's culture has stayed consistent for the past 3 to 4,000 years. So, he will understand how to make friends. He will understand if he were to get a job how to associate with his boss and his... If he were to get married, he would know how to raise his children to have them succeed in China.

Okay, does that make sense to you guys? It would take him time to learn how to use a cell phone and how to drive a car, but he can do so. Does that make sense? Now, let's do another experiment. Let's take a random guy from China today and put him in Germany, okay? What I will argue is this. He will never ever be able to adapt to the culture. He may get a job as a pizza delivery man, who knows, okay? But he will never ever make friends who are German.

He won't find a German wife. Whatever job he does, he won't know how to succeed. He won't know what to say to his boss. He won't know how to associate with his boss. Okay, does that make sense? This is a guy who knows the internet, who knows how to drive a car, who can speak English, but because of the culture, he's always a stranger. Does that make sense? This first experiment, I hope, shows you the persistence of culture. It's the most important part of who you are. It drives everything else.

It drives how you see the world. It drives how you interact with others. So, what matters is the culture and nothing else. And what I want to show you this semester is the world can be divided into cultural ecosystems because of the geography, because of the demographics, okay? Does that make sense? So, look, ... is a cultural ecosystem. All right, meaning someone from Germany can go to Italy and still feel at home. They don't speak the same... The geography is different, but they share the same cultural orientation, the same cultural values.

All right? Someone who lives in the Middle East, okay? Well, somebody call the Levant. Israel and other places, okay? But basically Middle East. That's also another cultural ecosystem.

Then you have the steppes. All right, so remember the steppes are grassland, this ocean of grassland that basically extends from Hungary to Mongolia, okay? And then you have India, okay? So, but they're these different ecosystems, cultural ecosystems that are determined by their geography, their... and the demographics.

And culture is a response to geography, history, and demographics, okay? Does that make sense? All right? Now, what I will show you is within each ecosystem they're always interacting with each other, okay? They're always interacting with each other. And when they change, they change their interaction with each other. All right?

Let's ask a really important question. Which is why do empires fall, why do they decline, why do they fail? And this is a really important question.

How was it possible for the Roman Empire to collapse? Were the Greeks able to defeat the Persian Empire? How were the Mongolians and the Manchus able to conquer the Chinese Empire?

All right? And what I will show you this semester is when this happens, when empires... the pattern is the same. There's a consistent pattern in this. All right? Let me explain the pattern. And then for the semester we'll go into specific instances of this pattern to explore the specifics, okay? Does that make...? All right. So what happens is this, why empires fall is there's usually an empire, okay? Let's just say Rome.

And as it expands they encounter something called the borderlands. Borderlands are just places that are the intersections of empires. Okay, so Mongolia is a borderland of the Chinese Empire. Right? Arabia is the borderland of the Byzantine and the Sasanian Persian Empires, okay?

The borderlands and the empire become at first symbiotic. Okay? Meaning they depend on each other. They work with each other, okay? In three ways. The first and most simple way that they interact is through trade.

Okay? They trade with each other. Second way they interact is through military cooperation. So, what often happens is the empire needs mercenaries. And it turns out that people who live in the borderlands make very good soldiers, okay? Because they live in a time of war and chaos. In the borderlands, there's no central authority. So, they're always fighting each other. So, they make very good soldiers. And then the third way they interact with each other is people in the borderlands will raid and pillage the empire. They outfit the empire for resources, okay?

So, they are interacting with each other. So, the pattern is this. The borderlands first start off as maybe an isolated region of the world. So, Arabia, the steppes, and the Germanic north, okay? What we call Scandinavia today, okay? The Norse, the Norsemen.

So, these are all isolated parts. But as the empire expands, they start to... with these isolated ecosystems. And when they interact, what happens is these borderlands become energized. Okay? It's like the empire's adding fuel to the borderlands by giving them more wealth, by giving them more access to information. Okay, does that make sense? And over time, what happens is because of this new energy, the borderlands become much more populated, much more wealthy, much more knowledgeable. And then it creates internal conflicts within their borderlands.

And the only way for them to resolve this conflict is to expand. Okay? They have to expand now. And in the process of expansion, what happens is now and then they will conquer the... All right? That's a pattern. The borderlands are first these isolated regions that no one knows much about. They're like the stuff of legend and... When the empire expands, it energizes these borderlands. The energy makes these borderlands more wealthy, more populated, and more militarily sophisticated. That creates conflicts within the borderlands, too many people.

So, what are they forced to do? They're forced to... And during the course of this expansion, they come into conflict with the empire. And now and then, they will conquer the empire, become the new... That's a pattern. And it happens all over human history. Okay? This is how the Mongolians conquered China. This is how the Manchus conquered China. Before the Mongolians and Manchus conquered China, there was trade. The Chinese empire was using them as mercenaries. Okay? There was also a lot of small conflict. Does that make sense?

All right. So, now that I explained the pattern, the question then is why would this happen? Why would this happen? How is it possible for the borderlands, which again is only a fraction of the wealth, the population, and the resource of the empire, how were they able to conquer the...? And this is a really important lesson you will learn in this class, which is empires are destined to collapse.

Must collapse. All right? So, why is that the case? In this class, you will learn there are three boundary conditions of all... Eventually, all societies must collapse for three reasons. All right. The first reason is elite overproduction.

Second reason is rat utopia. And the third reason is financialism. All right. So, let me explain the first, financialism. What do I mean by that? All right.

When a society first starts, it's important for people to contribute to its growth, right? They can do that by starting a... When I build a farm, I make goods. I'm creating wealth for the society. You can also do that by building a... But over time, what happens is you eventually realize that it's more profitable for you to lend money than to build things. Does that make sense?

It's much easier for you to be a capitalist than it is to be an... over time. So, there's this very famous French economist. His name is Thomas Piketty.

And he wrote a book called Capital in the 21st Century. It's a very good book. It's very easy to read and it's one of the most discussed books right now. And he makes the argument why inequality in society happens because of the nature of capital. Okay? The nature of money. What money does is it seeks to grow for the sake of growing. And what's the best way for capital to...? By consolidating and charging rents. Okay? Does that make sense? So, the example is, okay, there were five restaurants in Beijing.

They could all start to compete against each other for customers, right? So, they lower prices and try to create better food. But eventually, at some point, they figure out, "Hey, we're five restaurants, man. We can just get together and negotiate a cartel, a... where we charge all the all high... Then we make more money that way." That's something we call rent-seeking behavior, right? The objective of rent-seeking is to create a monopoly, which forces people to buy whatever prices you charge them. Okay? That's the ultimate goal of industry or society or business, to engage in rent-seeking behavior.

And over time, because capital... it's much more profitable to engage in capitalism than it is to engage in entrepreneurship. Meaning, you're better off actually investing in the stock market than you are getting a job. In fact, what he shows is the return on financial capitalism is 5% a year. Okay, on average, if you put $100 in the stock market, you make $5. All right? But the return on the real economy is only 2%. Meaning, if you start up a factory and you hire people, or you start up a restaurant, which contributes real growth, real wealth to the economy, you only make 2%.

All right? And that's why if you go to America, and you will go to America, you'll find that young people, your age, they're not working. What are they doing? They're investing in Bitcoin. They're playing the stock, the real estate market.

Investing in stocks. Do you understand? Because you make more money doing that than you do by doing real work, by creating a company. You understand? In other words, your society isn't producing any value.

And as a result, your economy can't move. Does that make sense? And when you're in this situation, what are you forced to do now? If your society and you want to continue, what are you forced to...? Open economy. Excuse me? Open economy. No. What do you do? Historically, what have societies done in order to get out of this situation where financialism has destroyed your society?

Make war, guys. Do you understand? When you make war, you destroy things. You destroy things, you're forced to rebuild things. It doesn't make sense. That's why we have war. Because war means a game reset. It allows society to rebuild itself. Okay? So, that's the first idea I want you guys to understand. Over time the economy matures to a point where everyone becomes a rent- renter, okay? Or I'm sorry, a rentier. You're trying to be a landlord, and you're trying to charge people to use land. You don't want to work.

This is true throughout the world, right? In China, it's the same thing throughout Chinese history. Right now in the West, it's the same thing as well. And at that point, you have no choice but to start a war to reset your... Or your society will continue to decline, okay? So, the first boundary condition, why societies must... Second boundary condition is the idea of rat utopia. Okay. So, we discussed this a bit last semester. I want to refresh your memory. Rat utopia is an experiment that's been done many times, but the idea is this.

What happens to rats in a perfect world? Normally, rats have an extremely ritualized society. So, for example, if you want to mate, okay? What male rats do is they go on top of a mound where all the female rats can see them, right? And the male rats start to dance, okay? They do that in a very strange way, but that attracts the attention of the female. The male rat sees the attention of the female rat, and the male rat starts to chase the female rat. The female rat runs back into her burrow, her home, and... The male rat has to stand outside and wait for the female rat to come out.

Once she comes out, she will start running again, and he will start chasing her. And then she'll run back into her burrow again. They do this multiple times until eventually the female rat lets him catch her, and then they will have sex, and they'll be married and have children, okay? So, that's rat society. It's no different from human society, like a girl, or you or a boy, you guys go out for a coffee date, then a lunch date, then a dinner date, then eventually, after a couple years, you might have sex, and get married, and have children, okay?

No different. It's a very heavily ritualized society. What experimenters did was they asked themselves, "What if we made a perfect world where no one had to fight for food? Every day, food would come down from the heavens, and all the rats could do whatever they want. They would have complete freedom." This is what we call rat utopia. It turned out all society collapsed. It was a complete... The male rats start to rape female rats. There's no more playing around. There's no more ritual. It was all just rape and murder. It was a complete breakdown of society.

Why did this happen? Okay, there are many different theories, but one thing that you need to understand about rats and humans is we all like status. Okay? The idea is this. We humans, we're all standing in line to go onto a mountain top, okay? The mountain top, everyone respects you, you make a lot of money, you feel good about... And we're all standing in line. And this line takes a long time, but eventually you will get to the mountain top. How this game works is people at the mountain top have to fall off and die in order for other people to climb up, okay?

Does that make sense? But what happens when the people at the mountain top don't...? Well, you're just stuck in line. When you're stuck in line, I'm not sure if you've been stuck in line for like hours and hours, but you get angry, right? You get frustrated. So, what do you do? Well, you hit someone behind you. And then that person gets angry and hits you back, okay? Eventually, in this line, everyone's fighting each other. And the people at the mountain top are enjoying the view, they have status, and they're never going to die.

They're never going to fall off. And this is our society today, guys. Okay? The people in power in China, in the United States, or in the world have been there for a long, long time, and they're not dying. So, what are the young people doing? Tang ping, bai lan, right? Quiet quitting, lying flat. Because you don't see any opportunities. What you want is that money. What you want is status. And that requires you to achieve a certain level in society.

Those positions are being occupied by people who refuse to die. And as a result, society collapses. Young people refuse to work, they refuse to get married and have children. So, your society dies. You understand? So, rat utopia is the second boundary condition. Does that make sense, guys? You're seeing this around the world today, all right? Ask yourselves, why is it that you yourself are not motivated? And the answer is, you really don't see an... to climb to the top and enjoy status. You just don't.

People aren't dying. This is not... And why? Because we've achieved a certain level of abundance and wealth that allows people to keep on living. Okay? Does that make sense? Any questions before I continue? Are you guys clear about this?

And the third boundary condition is the idea of elite overproduction. What is elite overproduction? Well, it's the same as rat utopia. Rat utopia is a conflict between the haves and have-nots. Elite overproduction is a conflict among the haves, okay? The very wealthy. Because even though there's a certain number, a limited number, of status... too many elite people are being... So, it's not only that the children of poor people are being screwed over in the system, it's the children of the elite are being screwed over in the system. And this creates conflict in the system because the poor can't do anything.

They can just fight each other in line, but the elite can do something. They can go to war against each other. They can monopolize... They can start killing each other, okay? This creates civil war. In fact, if you are to look at America today, you can say there's a civil war going on between two different factions of the elite. Okay, does that make sense? And this is what drives a lot of history. A lot of revolutions happen not because the poor are trying to overthrow the rich, it's because the low nobility is fighting for opportunities against the upper nobility.

Does that make sense, guys? Okay, and we're seeing this again today in China and also in the United States. All right? So, these are the three main boundary conditions.

So, now let's apply these three boundary conditions and ask ourselves why empires collapse. Well, the first reason is because most people in the empire don't want to live there. They're just stuck living there. Why do most people not want to live there? Because they are in debt.

And landlessness. Throughout most of human history, empires that have persisted for the longest have this huge problem where the majority of the population suffers from too much debt and suffers from too much landlessness, no opportunities.

Then what happens is the elite starts fighting amongst themselves. There's corruption. Why is there corruption? Because the elite are struggling... engage in rent-seeking behavior amongst themselves. Okay, they're trying to steal more, they're stealing more and more. So, there's corruption. There's civil conflict and it's only a matter of time before the empire collapses. But during this time, what does the empire do? Okay, it's really strange and funny, but what they do is this. They import the people from the borderlands in order to try to resolve their civil conflicts. Okay, does that make sense?

You can't trust the army anymore because the army is made up of people who have too much debt and who are landless. So, what do you do? You hire foreign... Right? That's what China does. Or that's what China did in its history.

You can't trust your own army, so you hire foreign mercenaries. And eventually what happens is you replace your army with foreign mercenaries. And then eventually, what happens? The foreign mercenaries take over your empire. That's what happened in Rome. That's what happened throughout human history.

Okay. So, now that we discuss the empire, I want to look at the... Why is it true that the borderlands are able to conquer the empire? And my argument to you is cultural. Sorry, culture. It's cultural. All right? So, we have this prejudice or misunderstanding about civilization. All right? Civilization.

Civilization is about cities. It's about writing. It's about technology. It's about wealth. And if you looked at it that way, then you don't really understand why these borderlands, the Mongolians, the Vikings, the Arabians, the Greeks, why are they able to conquer these empires? That makes no sense to... So, what I'm trying to tell you is this is a wrong way of looking at it. A better way of looking at it is culture. In the borderlands, there's a certain culture that develops because it's the borderlands.

It's a culture that focuses on freedom, and self-reliance. This is true throughout the borderlands, right? If we were to go back to Mongolia during the time of Genghis... If we were to go back to the Germanic, the European north of the time of the Vikings, these are cultures that emphasize freedom, egalitarianism, and... And as such, these were amazing warriors, okay? So, let's look at an example. Let's look at the Vikings, okay? The Vikings didn't know how to read or write. They didn't have any mathematics.

They didn't have cities. But from age two or three, their kids were learning how to swim, how to row boats, how to cook, how to hunt, how to fight, how to ride horses. Does that make sense? And what are civilized kids doing? They're learning how to do test questions. Right? In a war, who's going to win? Well, obviously these guys. Okay? Does that make sense?

So, this is the idea of the oceanic currents, okay? You have these isolated areas that are ecosystems amongst themselves. As the empire expands, okay? Just think of it as a current. You know, the imperial current. It's just expanding, expanding. That's what empires do. It energizes these areas. And these areas actually have much more energetic potential than the empire, which is dying, okay? And there's so much energy in the borderlands that they now become like a hurricane, and they have to ride through history. Sometimes they're defeated, but like the Greeks, like the Vikings, like the Mongolians, like the Arabians, they win.

And when they win, they create a lot of destruction, okay? And that's the idea I want you to implant in your head. These are natural forces that are unstoppable. Once they start, you cannot stop them. Okay? This war in Ukraine, it is a hurricane that will engulf all of... This war in the Middle East, it's a hurricane that will engulf the entire world. Once this starts, you can't have a conference and decide to end it. These things cannot end until they reach their natural course, okay? The hurricane stops when it runs out of... Does that make sense?

The hurricane does not negotiate with you and say, "Oh, well, you make a very good case for why I shouldn't destroy you, so I'll just..." Hurricanes don't do that. Okay, these are natural forces.

Right? And this is what I will show you this semester. And I will also show you how this connects to current events. And then, once we do that, we should be able to predict current events. And just plug in, you know, spoiler, things will not end well.

We are looking at the complete and utter destruction of the world we live in. Nothing will be the same. Because these are oceanic currents. They destroy everything in their path. Once you unleash them, they must... It's only a question of how much.

All right. Was this clear to you guys? Any questions? Anything you want me to clarify or elaborate? Again, I know this is a big theory, but we will be doing a lot of examples throughout the course of the semester. All right? And this will give you a unified theory of history. And you'll see how everything connects together. Any questions?

So like, do people who start these hurricanes, weathermen, people? Oh, that's a good question, okay. What starts these hurricanes or what starts this process? All right, so if you look at an ocean, you will discover that these currents are happening all the time. You understand? There's no start. They're always in motion. All right? So, once you start an empire, you're starting already a hurricane in the borderlands. Once the hurricane matures in the borderlands, it will overthrow an empire, which will then start to energize a new borderland.

Does that make sense? So, that's a really good question. And unfortunately, the answer is there'll always be a hurricane. Hurricanes are always forming. You just have to figure out where they're forming in order to protect where they're coming from, okay? But obviously, the two big hurricanes right now are what's happening in Ukraine and what's happening in Israel in the Middle East. Okay? But other hurricanes are coming, okay? For example, there will eventually be a conflict in East Asia. All right? Now, a lot of people are saying the conflict will be between China and the United States.

I do not think that's the case. I do not think the conflict will be between the United States and China. I think it will involve Japan and South Korea. All right? It will not be over the Taiwan Strait. It will involve South Korea and Japan. How so, I don't really know, okay? Another conflict is what's happening in... is itself a hurricane. Eventually, America will have to fight a civil war. And when you go to America, you will see how divided the country is. All right? And people are already predicting a civil war.

It's only a question of when. I think things will speed up in 2028. The reason why is the election in 2028 will be heavily... People are going to argue over who won. It'll be very unclear who won in 2028. And there's a very good chance Trump will run again in 2020.

But I think these are two big hurricanes that are coming along the way. Not now, but they're coming along the way. The big scary hurricane, of course, is Iran. Okay? Eventually, the United States and Iran will come to conflict with each other. Okay? And this will drag in the entire... Right? That doesn't make sense to you, Eva? Okay. Thanks for the question. Okay. Any more questions? You mentioned that these currents never... And so, when they continuously energize the borderlands, and the currents always grow bigger and bigger and... And so, it overwhelms the empire.

Yes. So, what's considered a natural element, as... Like, how do they run out of energy and... That's a great question, okay. All right. So, we have to figure out what is driving the hurricane. And the answer is the internal conflicts within the borderlands. Okay? Does that make sense? So, there's just too many people. And there's just not enough status positions. So, they go off and they conquer their own territory, right? So, if you look at the Vikings, okay, the Vikings. The Vikings are interesting. The Vikings, which we'll discuss a lot, they're in northern Europe.

And for most of human history, we had actually no idea they were there, okay? They were in the north in Denmark, in Norway, and Sweden. And they basically kept to themselves. They still traded with the world, but we didn't really know much about them, okay? And then they started to come out of nowhere. And they did three things. They went over to colonize Greenland and Iceland. All right? And they also went to actually North America. So, they were actually the first Europeans to reach North America. So, one trait that they had was to expand and explore and colonize. But then you also had a group of Vikings, Northmen, who went to attack... And they were such a huge problem that the French decided to give them their own land called Normandy.

Okay? Normandy, the land of the North people, Normandy. All right? And then they went over here to Ukraine along the Dnieper river because they were trading with the Islamic Empire. And they founded colonies or new settlements. And this was a peaceful... Okay? Because they were trying to... trading posts. And this became the basis of which country do you guys know?

Because these people were called the... I actually don't know what Rus means, but it just means Rus. And that's where Russia comes from. So, this is the beginning of a new country called Russia. All right? And Normandy is interesting because they eventually went off to conquer a new country called... Do you guys...? Who did the Normans conquer?

1066, guys. All right? You understand? So, the hurricane stops when the people just run out of energy because they've reached a point where they can't go on, okay? The hurricane is created because they have wealth, power, but they don't have enough status. So, they expand to fill these status positions, okay? This is actually what drives empire building. Does that make sense?

It's not because you lack resources, it's because you have too many people who want status and you can't fill them, you can't leave them in society because then they will overthrow you. So, you send them somewhere else, okay?

All right? Good. Is that clear, Echo? Great. Any more questions? Great. Okay. So, I hope this was... We will continue discussing this throughout the semester because this becomes a framework for which you understand all of European history for the past 3,000 years, okay? So, next class we will do the Roman Empire, the fall and decline of the Roman Empire, which will lead us into the rise of something called the Holy Roman Empire, which is not the Roman Empire, okay? It's basically the French Empire. Okay, or the Frankish Empire.

And the Frankish Empire will lead to the rise of the Vikings. All right? So, those are the next three... All right.