'Big trouble' has no measurable threshold. The US has since faced rising debt, an unpopular air/sea war with Iran from Feb 28, 2026 and episodic unrest, but nothing defines when the prediction would be met.
Restated in 11 videos as The American empire and its world order are ending
Iran and Israel did go to war (Israel's strikes of 13 June 2025 started the Twelve-Day War, and the joint US-Israeli campaign began 28 Feb 2026). No ground invasion of Iran happened by April 2026; the US massed about 17,000 troops in the Gulf in March 2026 but the only ground action was a special-forces aircrew rescue.
Trump won, ordered US strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 22 June 2025, then launched a full US-Israeli war on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) on 28 Feb 2026. Both came within two years of the 2024 election.
The US-Israel war on Iran began 28 Feb 2026, went through a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire (8 Apr) and the Islamabad Memorandum (17 Jun), collapsed 8 Jul, and is still unresolved in Oct 2026, with indirect talks via Qatar. Iran survived the killing of Khamenei, kept about 70% of its missiles (leaked US estimate, May) and disrupted Hormuz, but no clear winner has emerged and no carrier was sunk by drone swarms.
The Gaza war went on for about 18 months after the video, then a US-brokered ceasefire took effect in October 2025. Violations followed, but large-scale war stopped, which is an early sign against 'many more years'. The claim of rising global sympathy for Iran is too vague to measure.
When the US-Israeli war on Iran began in Feb-Mar 2026, China gave only limited help: diplomatic cover (including an April 7, 2026 UNSC veto with Russia), continued oil purchases and alleged dual-use supplies, with no military intervention. Washington kept pressing Beijing to do more, and Trump got little help from Xi at the May summit.
The condition (a US invasion of Iran) has not been met: the US-Israel war on Iran that began Feb 28, 2026 was an air/sea campaign with no ground invasion, followed by an April 8 ceasefire that later broke down. Early signs are mixed: polls showed the war was very unpopular (around 27% support), but protests were muted and nowhere near Vietnam scale.
Said in April 2024 that Russia was 'about to win'; two and a half years later as of mid-October 2026 the war is ongoing with no Russian victory or settlement: US-brokered talks (Geneva Feb 2026, Witkoff/Kushner visits Sept 2026) produced no breakthrough, and Russia is striking Kyiv while a disputed 'energy ceasefire' frays.
Multi-decade timeframe. No regional-bloc order with Germany, Japan or Israel as hegemons has emerged as of Oct 2026, and the Iran war is unresolved.