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Recurring call · Iran & Middle East

The US will go to war with Iran

Starting in April 2024 he predicts that the US, especially under Trump and pushed by Israel, will go to war with Iran within roughly two to five years. By June 2025 and January 2026 the forecast narrows to an imminent attack.

11
videos
13
separate calls
77%
hit rate on 13 resolved
Apr 2024 → Jan 2026
first and latest time
Times said13Resolved13Scorecard

Moving the goalposts?

When he said it (left to right) against the deadline he gave (bottom to top). A rising path means the date keeps getting pushed back.

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Every time he said it

Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.