South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he… — Open

Immigration will not solve the population decline of developed societies in the long run; it is only a short-term remedy while underlying decline continues.

Jun 132026

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War will cause rapid population decline in East Asia and governments will then encourage births.

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Israel

Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.

This is a 50-year forecast and cannot be judged in 2026. Israel's economy is strong (Bank of Israel forecasts 5.2% growth for 2026, and FDI was a record in 2025), but it is not a dominant world power.

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 37:45

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Closes Dec 2075in 17973 days

Society & culture

South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.

Deadline ~2075; South Korea's fertility remains among the world's lowest, but the state persists.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 35:15

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Closes Dec 2075in 17973 days

China & Taiwan

China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.

This is a projection for 2100 and cannot be judged now. China's population is falling, but the size of the decline is unknown.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 41:00

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Closes Dec 2100in 27104 days

Society & culture

It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over the next 50 years because of collapsing fertility and materialism.

'Very hard to survive' has no defined outcome.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 40:35

Unresolvable

Said Jan 6, 2026deadline Dec 2075

South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he says he'd be surprised otherwise); its working population halves by 2060.

Timeline Closes in 14.2 years

Verdict Open

What he said

He keeps saying this

More from this video

Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.

South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.

China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.

It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over the next 50 years because of collapsing fertility and materialism.