It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over… — Unresolvable

What he said

So, given the current state of events, it's very hard for the Western world and really for China to survive next for next 50 years, okay?

Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 8 videos as Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia

Jul 202026

OpenDeadline Jul 2031

China's fertility rate will fall below South Korea's within five years.

Jul 202026

Unresolvable

East Asia is heading toward collapse; the 'East Asian century' will end.

Jul 172026

OpenDeadline Jul 2036

Over the next 10 years Japan will try to solve its demographic crisis by massively attracting immigrants.

Jul 172026

OpenDeadline Jul 2076

If Japan does not solve its demographic crisis this decade, it will cease to exist as a nation-state within 50 years.

Jun 232026

Unresolvable

Immigration will not solve the population decline of developed societies in the long run; it is only a short-term remedy while underlying decline continues.

Jun 132026

Open

War will cause rapid population decline in East Asia and governments will then encourage births.

More from this video

Israel

Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.

This is a 50-year forecast and cannot be judged in 2026. Israel's economy is strong (Bank of Israel forecasts 5.2% growth for 2026, and FDI was a record in 2025), but it is not a dominant world power.

A multipolar world of regional empires will emerge Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 37:45

Open

Closes Dec 2075in 17973 days

Society & culture

South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.

Deadline ~2075; South Korea's fertility remains among the world's lowest, but the state persists.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 35:15

Open

Closes Dec 2075in 17973 days

Society & culture

South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he says he'd be surprised otherwise); its working population halves by 2060.

Deadline 2040; no collapse as of Oct 2026.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 43:17

Open

Closes Dec 2040in 5190 days

China & Taiwan

China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.

This is a projection for 2100 and cannot be judged now. China's population is falling, but the size of the decline is unknown.

Low fertility will doom South Korea and East Asia Game Theory #1: The Dating Game @ 41:00

Open

Closes Dec 2100in 27104 days

It will be very hard for the Western world and China to survive over the next 50 years because of collapsing fertility and materialism.

Timeline Closes in 49.2 years

Verdict Unresolvable

What he said

He keeps saying this

More from this video

Israel is the country most likely to be dominant for the next 50 years because it is the only wealthy high-tech society with above-replacement fertility.

South Korea will probably disappear within about 50 years owing to its collapsing fertility rate.

South Korea will face collapse as a nation-state by around 2040 (he says he'd be surprised otherwise); its working population halves by 2060.

China's population will fall to about 600 million by 2100 at current fertility rates.