War & WWIIIOpen

Russia and the United States will not use nuclear weapons because it is the ultimate taboo.

Timeline No deadline given

Timeframe unspecifiedSaid again 5×

Verdict Open

No nuclear weapon has been used by Russia or the US as of Oct 2026. The claim has held so far but is open-ended.

What he said

It's not going to happen because it's the ultimate taboo.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 6 videos as Nuclear weapons will not be used

Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.