War & WWIII
After the war the world will never be the same again.
'The world will never be the same again' is too vague to test, and the war has not ended.
Unresolvable
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
War & WWIIICame true
The US-Israel war on Iran (World War III) will last many weeks and possibly many years.
Said Mar 3, 2026 in Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War @ 0:18
Timeline Resolved 4 months after he said it, within his own window
Timeframe weeks to yearsWindow 2.0 yearsSaid again 26×
Verdict Came true
The war that began 28 Feb 2026 lasted many weeks: about 6 weeks of heavy fighting to the 8 Apr ceasefire, renewed fighting after 8 Jul, and renewed hostilities still under way in Oct 2026.
What he said
we can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly also for many years.
Read it in the transcript, in context →He keeps saying this
Restated in 18 videos as The Iran war will never end in peace
More from this video
Iran & Middle East
Dubai is finished as a safe wealthy hub in the long term and will likely go bankrupt.
The war hit Dubai hard: Iranian drones landed near Dubai airport, Emirates suspended flights, tourism stalled and many expats left. But there is no sign Dubai has gone bankrupt or collapsed as a hub as of Oct 2026. This is a long-term claim that can't be judged yet.
Open
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
Iran & Middle East
Iran's regime will be the first to fall, Dubai will go bankrupt, and eventually the whole GCC including Saudi Arabia will collapse.
Iran's regime has not fallen. Khamenei was killed on 2026-02-28, but Mojtaba Khamenei was named supreme leader on 2026-03-08 and the state is still fighting. Dubai has not gone bankrupt and the GCC has not collapsed. This is long-term, so it stays pending, with early signs against the 'regime falls first' part.
Open
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
Iran & Middle East
Bahrain will be one of the major centers of the conflict, including a Shia uprising against Sunni rulers.
Bahrain was a major target. Iranian strikes hit the Fifth Fleet facilities, the Bapco refinery (which declared force majeure on 2026-03-09) and the airport, and Bahrain reportedly struck Iran in July. But there was no Shia uprising against the Sunni monarchy before 2026-09-03; authorities only arrested people accused of supporting the attacks. (Checked only against Wikipedia war articles; the web search budget ran out, so absence of reports is not fully confirmed.)
Partly
Resolved Sep 2026said Mar 2026
Iran & Middle East
Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz to strangle the global economy.
Already underway when stated: tanker traffic through Hormuz had largely stopped from about 2026-03-01 after Iran's retaliation, and closure was formalized around 2026-03-04. Iran kept the strait effectively closed or tolled through spring and declared it closed again in June and July 2026. Oil hit roughly $112-118 Brent by late March.
Came true
Resolved Mar 2026said Mar 2026
Economy & markets
The global economy will suffer greatly over the next few months because of the Hormuz disruption.
The Hormuz closure did hit the global economy: Brent reached $119.50 in March 2026, jet fuel nearly doubled, and the IMF trimmed 2026 global growth to about 3.1% from 3.3%. But there was no global recession, and US stocks hit record highs by late May 2026, so 'suffer greatly' overstates it.
Partly
Resolved Jul 2026said Mar 2026
Iran & Middle East
Attacks will extend to Iranian water supply, dams, reservoirs and power plants.
There were some strikes of this kind. A water reservoir in Haftkel was hit in late March, HRANA reported two power plants in Bandar Abbas hit on 2026-03-22, and gas and energy sites in Isfahan and Khorramshahr were hit on 2026-03-23/24. But Trump postponed his threatened campaign against the power grid and the 2026-04-08 ceasefire followed. There was no systematic campaign against dams, reservoirs or power plants by 2026-06-03.
Partly
Resolved Jun 2026said Mar 2026
Iran & Middle East
The US and Israel aim to fracture Iran into ethnic enclaves fighting over water.
Iran has not broken into ethnic enclaves as of Oct 2026. Kurdish and Baloch armed groups clashed with Iranian forces on a limited scale, and analysts found little evidence of defections. The central state remains intact.
Open
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
Iran & Middle East
A long-lasting global Shia jihad against the American empire will continue.
'Global Shia jihad' is too loose to test. Iran-aligned groups did fight: Hezbollah from early March, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis from 2026-03-28, who took control of Bab al-Mandab in Sept-Oct. But there is no clear test for a long-term 'global jihad'.
Unresolvable
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
Economy & markets
If the GCC collapses, the US stock market and economy (and the American empire) will collapse, causing depression.
The condition hasn't happened: the GCC has not collapsed despite Iranian strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and the US economy and stock market have not collapsed. Open-ended conditional.
Open
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline
War & WWIII
Europe may enter the war, and Russia and China may then join on Iran's side, making it World War III.
This was a hedged scenario. No European state has joined offensive operations. The UK allowed US use of its bases for 'defensive' strikes, and European warships defended Cyprus. Russia and China have not entered the war on Iran's side as of Oct 2026.
Open
Said Mar 3, 2026no deadline