Iran & Middle EastCame true

The US military will go along with an Iran war because of institutional hubris from the 2003 Iraq victory.

Timeline Resolved 21 months after he said it

Timeframe unspecified

Verdict Came true

The US military carried out the June 2025 strikes and the 2026 air and naval war (Operation Epic Fury) without any institutional refusal. His stated cause, 'hubris' from the Iraq war, cannot be checked.

What he said

I want to make the argument today that the military will go along with the war
Read it in the transcript, in context →

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Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

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Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.