Iran & Middle EastCame true

If Trump returns to office there is a strong likelihood the US will go to war with Iran.

Timeline Resolved 21 months after he said it, within his own window

Timeframe second Trump termWindow 4.7 yearsSaid again 12×

Verdict Came true

In Trump's second term the US struck Iran on 22 June 2025 and went to full war with Iran from 28 Feb 2026.

What he said

if he does become president in a second term there will be a very strong likelihood that the United States will go to war with Iran
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 11 videos as The US will go to war with Iran

More from this video

Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

About · Method · Contact · Videos · Data

How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.