EuropeOpen

Spain will have to withdraw from Ceuta and cede it to Morocco.

Timeline Closes in 22 months

Timeframe unspecifiedWindow 2.0 years

Verdict Open

Deadline is August 2028. After the July 30-31, 2026 mass breach most migrants were returned, and Spain has not ceded or withdrawn from Ceuta.

What he said

The Spanish have absolutely no choice but to withdraw from Ceuta and cede that territory to Morocco.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

More from this video

Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

About · Method · Contact · Videos · Data

How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.