Europe
Spain will have to withdraw from Ceuta and cede it to Morocco.
Deadline is August 2028. After the July 30-31, 2026 mass breach most migrants were returned, and Spain has not ceded or withdrawn from Ceuta.
Open
Closes Aug 2028in 655 days
EuropeOpen
The migrant crisis will tear apart the EU, with European states reimposing borders and acting as competing nation-states.
Said Aug 1, 2026 in Emergency Discussion #2: The Blackmailing of Spain @ 17:00
Timeline Closes in 3.8 years
Timeframe unspecifiedWindow 4.0 yearsSaid again 2×
Verdict Open
Deadline is 2030. The Ceuta crisis brought tension within the EU, including Meloni calling for Spain's suspension from Schengen, but there has been no broad reimposition of borders or breakup.
What he said
this is going to be an issue that's going to basically tear Europe apart.
Read it in the transcript, in context →He keeps saying this
Restated in 3 videos as The EU will break apart
⋯ 5 months earlier
⋯ 21 months earlier
More from this video
Europe
Millions of African migrants will flow into Europe via Spain in the next few years due to famine and war.
Deadline is 2029. The Ceuta breach of July 30-31, 2026, right before this video, involved an estimated 40,000-60,000 people, most of whom were sent back. That is far short of 'millions'.
Open
Closes Aug 2029in 1020 days
Other
Flare-up between Indonesia and Malaysia with Indonesia asserting control over the Strait of Malacca, backed by the US and Israel.
The deadline is 2028-08-01. So far in 2026 Indonesia and Malaysia have moved toward closer naval coordination (April 2026), and Indonesia dropped a floated Malacca toll. No flare-up has been reported, which is an early sign against.
Open
Closes Aug 2028in 655 days
US politics
The US will eventually take over Greenland and Europeans can do nothing.
On Sep 22, 2026 the US, Denmark and Greenland signed a deal giving the US broad military access, including a Pituffik expansion and Golden Dome. It reaffirmed Danish sovereignty, so there was no takeover. The deadline is 2030.
Open
Closes Aug 2030in 1385 days
Europe
Vox leader Santiago Abascal has a very good chance of replacing Pedro Sanchez as Spain's leader.
Deadline is end of 2028. Sánchez remains PM as of October 2026, and Spain's next general election is due by 2027. Recent polling couldn't be checked.
Open
Closes Dec 2028in 807 days
Europe
The AfD will be promoted to power in Germany by American and Israeli interests to re-summon German nationalism for war against Russia.
Deadline is 2030. The AfD is not in government in Germany as of October 2026.
Open
Closes Aug 2030in 1385 days
Society & culture
Millions will starve in Africa, causing war, revolution and migration to Europe.
Window to 2029. Early signs: the 2026 Hormuz fertilizer shock and UN warnings that 40-50 million in the Sahel face acute hunger; no confirmed mass starvation of millions or resulting migration wave to Europe yet.
Open
Closes Aug 2029in 1020 days
Europe
A right-wing pro-Zionist message of deporting Muslims/concentration camps will dominate in Europe over the next months or years.
Deadline is August 2027. No clear sign that deportation or 'concentration camp' messaging has come to dominate European politics, and the claim is loosely worded.
Open
Closes Aug 2027in 289 days
Israel
A major divorce between Israel and the United States will occur, amid rising anti-Semitism.
There were public Trump-Netanyahu strains in mid-2026, but no divorce: US-Israel military integration advanced in the House NDAA in Jul 2026. Deadline 2036.
Open
Closes Aug 2036in 3577 days
US politics
America will probably descend into civil war.
There is no civil war as of October 2026. The 20-year horizon remains open.
Open
Closes Aug 2046in 7229 days
US politics
Texas and the religious South will prosper; California, New York and Boston are finished; Christian nationalism is the future of the US.
'Prosper', 'finished' and 'Christian nationalism is the future' are too vague and long-range to check.
Unresolvable
Said Aug 1, 2026deadline Aug 2046
Religion
Religion will surge in power over the next five years, threatening transnational capital.
Window to 2031; too early to judge a surge in religion's power.
Open
Closes Aug 2031in 1750 days
War & WWIII
The world will burn down over the next 10-20 years because transnational capital refuses to surrender its empire.
'The world will burn down' has no measurable criterion.
Unresolvable
Said Aug 1, 2026deadline Aug 2046
Economy & markets
We are living through the collapse of transnational capital.
'The collapse of transnational capital' is a broad interpretive framing with no measurable criterion.
Unresolvable
Said Aug 1, 2026deadline Aug 2046
War & WWIII
The world will unite against the United States and Israel within 5 to 10 years.
There is no global coalition against the US and Israel as of Oct 2026; Xi's Sept 2026 state visit to Washington was cordial. Deadline 2036.
Open
Closes Aug 2036in 3577 days
Israel
Pax Judaica (transfer of empire from America to Israel) will not succeed and Israel will fracture.
Israel is deeply polarized ahead of the 2026-10-27 election but has not fractured, and Pax Judaica has not emerged. Deadline 2036.
Open
Closes Aug 2036in 3577 days
Iran & Middle East
The US will lose the Iran war, though it will take over the Suez Canal and control the Strait of Gibraltar.
As of Oct 2026 the war is a contested stalemate. The US has not taken over the Suez Canal or moved to control the Strait of Gibraltar. The deadline is 2028-08-01.
Open
Closes Aug 2028in 655 days
Religion
A spiritual awakening is coming in maybe 5-10 years.
Window 5-10 years (to 2036); too early to judge, and 'spiritual awakening' is loosely defined.
Open
Closes Aug 2036in 3577 days
Society & culture
The professional managerial class will be first to die out in coming revolutions and AI will replace them; global cities like Singapore, Dubai and Hong Kong will cease to exist once globalization ends.
No revolutions have eliminated the professional-managerial class, and Singapore, Dubai and Hong Kong still function as global cities as of Oct 2026.
Open
Closes Aug 2046in 7229 days
Europe
Germany will return to religious nationalism and nations with strong ethnic identity (Hungary, Poland, Austria, Scandinavia) will survive the coming crisis.
Window runs to 2046 and the wording is vague. No German turn to religious nationalism has been seen.
Open
Closes Aug 2046in 7229 days