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Trump will almost certainly win the November 2024 election.

Said May 15, 2024 in Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran @ 36:08

Timeline Resolved 1 days after his deadline

Timeframe November 2024Window 6 monthsSaid again 4×

Verdict Came true

Trump won the Nov 5, 2024 election with 312 electoral votes and the popular vote.

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What he said

I will present the argument that it is almost certain, very likely that he will win in November.
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He keeps saying this

Restated in 5 videos as Trump will win the 2024 election

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War & WWIII

If Trump wins a second term he may declare war on Iran or at least escalate tensions, which will most likely lead to a Third World War.

The escalation part came true: Trump bombed Iranian nuclear sites on 22 Jun 2025 and launched a full US-Israel war on Iran on 28 Feb 2026. That war drew in Gulf states, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Pakistani troops, but as of Oct 2026 it has not become a Third World War between great powers.

The US will go to war with IranGeo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran @ 35:02
Partly
Resolved Feb 2026said May 2024
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

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Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.