Already underway when stated: new State Council entry and exit regulations, signed July 22 and publicized Aug 12, took effect on Sept 15, 2026. They tightened controls rather than closing the border. No China-Japan war has begun. This described something already underway, so it isn't counted in the hit rate.
Restated in 12 videos as War will break out in East Asia
Alberta's referendum is set for 2026-10-19; it asks only whether to start a process toward a binding separation vote. Polls show over 60% of Albertans would choose to stay in Canada, an early sign against.
The Supreme Court of Canada has not ruled. Alberta's Court of King's Bench set aside separatist referendum questions (December 2025 and 2026-05-13) over First Nations consultation, and Smith reworded the question. There is no Trump intervention as of 2026-10-15.
As of 2026-10-15 the Falklands remain British. Milei revived the sovereignty claim in early September 2026 and Trump said the US stance was 'under review', but the US has not formally backed Argentina and the UK reasserted its 'unshakeable' commitment. The deadline is 2028-09-15.
The deadline is 2046. As of October 2026 no province has left Canada. Alberta's referendum is scheduled for 2026-10-19, with polls showing a majority for remaining.
10-20 year horizon (to 2046); too early to judge Canada's 'corporate restructuring'.
There is no Canadian recession so far. Q2 2026 GDP grew 3.3% annualized, and Q1 was revised from -0.1% to +0.3%, avoiding a technical recession. Economists expect slower growth ahead. The deadline is 2027-09-15.
'Pretty bad' has no defined criteria, so this can't be checked.
The window runs to 2031. No Canadian financial collapse has occurred as of 2026-10-15.
This is a vague long-term claim. Canadian public pensions and healthcare continue to operate as of 2026-10-15.
'Sell Canada at a critical point' is undefined and has no timeframe.
No draft has been announced. Reporting in 2026 says conscription is ruled out for now, and Carney is expanding the reserves through volunteer recruitment.
The 2028 election is still ahead. As of October 2026 there is no legal mechanism or formal move toward a third term.
There is no civil war as of October 2026. Blue-state and city defiance of ICE continues, for example NYC after Oct 8, but the 10-year window runs to 2036.
'More likely to move on Canada' is a probabilistic, undated statement with no clear test.
No civil war in Britain as of October 2026. The most notable unrest was rioting in Northern Ireland in June 2026, before this video.
The deadline is Sept 2027. As of Oct 2026 there has been no China-Japan war and no Japanese-led embargo coalition, only ongoing air and sea frictions.
Xi made a state visit to Washington on Sept 23-25, 2026; Wang Yi had already said in May that an autumn state visit would follow. Afterwards Xi said he expects to meet Trump twice more in 2026 (APEC Shenzhen in Nov, G20 Florida in Dec). Those two meetings are still pending.
The US has taken no covert action in Alberta. Separatists met Trump administration officials, and the Globe and Mail reported Republican strategists offering them help. The Oct 19, 2026 referendum is upcoming.
There has been no US ground invasion of Canada as of October 2026. The claim is open-ended.
30-year horizon (to 2056); no new theocracies have formed as of Oct 2026.
'Much more common' over 'the next few years' isn't defined well enough to judge yet. A longer-term rise in climate-related disasters is documented, but a clear jump by 2026-10-15 can't be confirmed.
World population is still about 8 billion and growing slowly; no drastic reduction as of Oct 2026. Deadline 2036.
The 'gradual collapse of everything we would call civilization' has no timeframe or clear criterion.