Private credit came under heavy stress in H1 2026, with redemption gates at Blue Owl, BlackRock/HPS and Cliffwater and rising defaults, but there was no systemic collapse. AI stocks had sharp selloffs (e.g. June 2026), yet US indexes were near records in Aug 2026. Neither bubble has clearly burst.
Restated in 12 videos as The AI bubble will burst and be nationalized
He said 'coming weeks', and seven months on no US ground invasion has happened. Kharg Island was bombed (13 March, 7 April) but not seized, and the only US forces on the ground were the F-15E rescue on 2026-04-03 to 05. An invasion could still come later, but the predicted near-term invasion did not.
Saudi Arabia did not formally declare war on Iran. It did reportedly strike Iran covertly in late March, invoked its defense pact with Pakistan (which sent about 8,000 troops, aircraft and drone squadrons), and publicly joined strikes on Iraqi militias on 2026-07-29. No Pakistani eastern front against Iran opened; Pakistan acted as mediator.
No tactical nuclear weapons have been used as of Oct 2026. Pakistan did enter in a defensive role: it deployed about 8,000 troops and aircraft to Saudi Arabia under their mutual defence pact. The war is ongoing.
This happened later and in a different form than 'coming weeks'. The Houthis joined on 2026-03-28 with missiles at Israel and declared a naval blockade on Saudi shipping in July. In Sept-Oct 2026 they took Mokha and gained control of the Bab al-Mandab strait, starting a crisis there.
South Korea and Japan refused to join US-led attacks, and Trump criticized them for it in March 2026. Public opposition to involvement is about 80% in both countries. Neither has entered the war as of Oct 2026.
Some civilian infrastructure was hit: the Haftkel water reservoir in late March, the Tehran-Karaj B1 bridge on 2026-04-02, and water tanks in Sirik in June that left about 20,000 people without water. The threatened large-scale strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure were repeatedly postponed or only planned (August).
Larijani was killed by an Israeli strike on 2026-03-17. Three weeks later the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire (2026-04-07/08), which lasted, with violations, until 2026-07-08.
Midterms are Nov 3, 2026 (not yet held). War is unpopular (Reuters/Ipsos support 31% in Aug 2026) and Democrats lead the generic ballot by ~5-6 points, with forecasts of ~25-30 House seat gains; 2028 not yet.
No draft and no cancellation/delay of elections; midterms are proceeding on Nov 3, 2026 and Trump said on Oct 8 he would not attack Iran before them. Trump earlier mused 'we shouldn't even have an election' (Jan 2026), but no action followed.
No civil war or sustained armed conflict between factions has occurred as of Oct 2026; political violence continues at the level of isolated attacks (e.g., the Apr 25, 2026 WHCA dinner shooting / attempted assassination of Trump). Open-ended 'eventually'.
This depends on the Nov 2028 election and a future bailout, so it can't be judged yet.
Deadline 2036; no shift of the US or Israel to theocracy as of Oct 2026.
There is no civil war in Iran as of Oct 2026. Kurdish and Baloch groups clashed with Iranian forces on a limited scale, and analysts found little evidence of defections. He posed this as a question, with low confidence.
No economic depression so far: the IMF's Oct 2026 WEO projects 3.1% global growth. Airfares rose sharply in spring 2026 but demand stayed strong, and there are no reports of widespread food shortages. Early signs point against.