US politicsOpen

After a contested 2028 election, New York City, Boston and California will declare independence.

Timeline Closes in 2.2 years

Timeframe 2028Window 4.6 yearsSaid again 30×

Verdict Open

The 2028 election has not happened yet. No state or city has moved to declare independence.

What he said

New York City declares independence. Boston declares independence. California declares independence.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 23 videos as America will descend into a second civil war

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Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.