US politicsOpen

A second American civil war is the most likely outcome, unfolding over decades as a series of violent episodes.

Timeline No deadline given

Timeframe 10, 20, 50 yearsSaid again 30×

Verdict Open

As of Oct 2026 there is no civil war in the US; unrest has been limited to protests and localized clashes (e.g., LA anti-ICE unrest June 2025). His timeframe runs over decades.

What he said

Then the most likely outcome is a civil war.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 23 videos as America will descend into a second civil war

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Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

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Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.