Iran & Middle EastCame true

Trump will start a war with Iran within two to three years.

Timeline Resolved 21 months after he said it, within his own window

Timeframe within 2-3 years (by mid-2027)Window 3.0 yearsSaid again 12×

Verdict Came true

Trump ordered strikes on Iran on 22 June 2025 and started a full war on 28 Feb 2026. Both fall within the 2-3 year window.

What he said

And the easiest answer is in his in over the next two three years, start a war with Iran.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 11 videos as The US will go to war with Iran

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Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

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How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.