US politicsOpen

The 2026 US midterms will be chaotic (ICE deployed, fraud accusations, prolonged court fights), making it hard to form the next Congress, though Trump will not cancel them.

Timeline Closes in 18 days

Timeframe November 2026 midtermsWindow 4 monthsSaid again 25×

Verdict Open

The midterms on Nov 3, 2026 haven't happened yet. They have not been cancelled, and lawsuits over Trump's election orders are ongoing.

What he said

I don't think Trump is going to cancel the midterms , but I think there's going to be a lot of chaos during them.
Read it in the transcript, in context →

He keeps saying this

Restated in 18 videos as Trump will take a third term and never leave power

More from this video

Other

After the World Cup, Argentina will get the Falkland Islands back with US backing and Britain can do little about it.

As of 2026-10-15 the Falklands remain British. Milei revived the sovereignty claim in early September 2026 and Trump said the US stance was 'under review', but the US has not formally backed Argentina and the UK reasserted its 'unshakeable' commitment.

Open
Said Jul 18, 2026no deadline
Open
Said Jul 18, 2026no deadline
US politics

Cuba is the next domino to fall: the US naval blockade will lead to a land or sea invasion.

The US fuel blockade and sanctions continued through September 2026, and warships docked at Guantánamo on Sep 1. Talks have stalled, but there has been no invasion. Prediction markets put the odds of a US-Cuba military clash in 2026 at about 13% in September.

Open
Said Jul 18, 2026no deadline
Iran & Middle East

The US will introduce ground forces into Iran from Iraq and Balochistan and escalate attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, similar to what happened in Gaza.

The infrastructure part was already underway: the US hit bridges, a railway station and power infrastructure in Hormozgan on Jul 14-17, 2026, just before this video. No US ground forces have entered Iran from Iraq or Balochistan as of Oct 15. The deadline is 2026-12-31.

Open
Closes Dec 2026in 76 days
Iran & Middle East

The Houthis will close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, forcing Saudi Arabia into war with the Houthis.

By Sep 10, 2026 the Houthis had seized Yemen's Red Sea coast, Perim and the Hanish Islands, and they declared a blockade on Saudi shipping through Bab al-Mandab. Saudi Arabia carried out more than 100 airstrikes in early September and backed a full Yemeni government counteroffensive from Oct 4. The closure targeted specific vessels rather than all traffic, and there are no Saudi ground troops.

Came true
Resolved Sep 2026said Jul 2026
War & WWIII

In about a year the war will spread to the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan-Armenia) and Central Asia, cutting Iran off from Russia and China.

There are early signs: Ukraine struck Iran-Russia supply ships and a missile boat in the Caspian on July 25, 2026, and Iranian drones hit Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) in March. There is no Azerbaijan-Armenia war and no Central Asia fighting, and Iran has not been cut off from Russia or China. Deadline July 2027.

Open
Closes Jul 2027in 275 days
War & WWIII

Expect terrorist attacks on critical civilian infrastructure in Central Asia, with the Central Asia conflict erupting in about two years.

There has been no Central Asia conflict or terror wave on infrastructure; the 2026 Global Terrorism Index scored Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan at zero. A July 19, 2026 drone strike on tankers at the CPC terminal was tied to the Ukraine war. Deadline July 2028.

Open
Closes Jul 2028in 641 days
Iran & Middle East

Iran will target UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain energy facilities rather than desalination plants or Israel.

Since July 2026 Iran has hit US and allied installations in Bahrain and Kuwait and attacked many oil and LNG tankers in Hormuz. In September the US sent Patriots to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect energy facilities. I found no clear post-video campaign aimed at UAE, Kuwaiti or Bahraini energy facilities specifically.

Open
Said Jul 18, 2026no deadline
Predictive History

An independent scorecard of every forward-looking claim Professor Jiang Xueqin made on the @PredictiveHistory YouTube channel. Not affiliated with the channel.

Updated 2026-10-16 · 757 calls from 180 transcripts.

About · Method · Contact · Videos · Data

How calls are found and checked

Each transcript was read in full by an AI model to pull out predictions, with the exact quote and timestamp. Each one was then checked with web search against events up to the update date, with sources linked.

How the hit rate works

Spot a mistake? Report it. Hit rate = (came true + ½ partly) ÷ resolved calls. Claims that were already underway when he made them are left out. Open calls haven't reached a verdict; Unresolvable ones are too vague ever to check. Verdicts are AI-assisted and may contain errors.